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<p>We do not know if it is more or less contagious than “regular” flu.</p>
<p>The current flu vaccine has H1N1 components in it, and some component of 1918 virus(so I have read in newspaper) I hope this virus will mutate to a more benign one. One of the reasons in the 1918 outbreak that the older people survived was that they had been exposed to an earlier flu virus, that gave them immunity. It is concerning that there were more fatalities in Mexico, they may have been able to spread the disease more easily, but why more virulent , once infected?</p>
<p>Kelowna,</p>
<p>Looks like the news story I had read is no longer available, but the CDC has this to say:</p>
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<p>So I gladly change my position to “maybe.”</p>
<p>I came back to this forum after a couple of days away and was so angered by the way we are scaring each other. Hence my two posts above. Please, do not spread false info just because you are scared!
Now I have found a post by UCLAri (above) with a link that I am going to underline here again:
[Scientists</a> see this flu strain as relatively mild - Los Angeles Times](<a href=“http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story]Scientists”>Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild)
Please read and take some deep breaths :)</p>
<p>Kelowna,</p>
<p>In my defense, I think the concerns I listed were legitimate given what we knew when I stated them. The question is how we deal with those concerns. I was never in favor of he freakouts.</p>
<p>Question to those who really know something about the way our immune systems reacts to illness versus vaccination:
There are two people. Person A has been receiving flu vaccine religiously for the past ten years. Person B did not, had a case of flu once during the last ten years. Of the two - which one is more likely to have a “milder” case of the new kind of flu? (I am not talking this particular swine flu but any new , in general. Provided of course that their age, gender, health status, living conditions etc. are identical?
I am really curious…</p>
<p>UCLAri - you have rehabilitated yourself in my eyes by posting the link to LA Times piece :). Thanks!</p>
<p>I have seen nothing that says that is more contagious or even more virulent than regular flu. There really is no such thing as regular flu - it mutates haphazardly all the time. None of the suspected cases in Maryland, for example, have required any unusual treatment and they have not been hospitalized. We can’t assume it is more virulent because people in another country - with third world health care - die. Do we know how many people in Mexico would die from any flu outbreak? People who live in poverty are more likely to die of everything. Each year in the US, between 30,000 - 50,000 people die of the flu. Since January, over 13000 people in the US have died from the flu. We had plenty reason to be careful before ever hearing about the swine flu.</p>
<p>curiouser, It’s U of Delaware. My friend called me from campus this AM. She said instructors there suspect there are many more cases than have been confirmed to the media, as the absentee rate due to illness has been unusually high over the past couple of weeks. My friend called her dean to get more information, but the dean wouldn’t confirm or deny any of the rumors.</p>
<p>University of Delaware outbreak (from yesterday):</p>
<p>[A</a> letter to the University community](<a href=“http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2009/apr/letter042909.html]A”>A letter to the University community)</p>
<p>Kelowna,</p>
<p>I’m so flattered. ;)</p>
<p>To be honest, this whole thing seems… bleh. Bloo bloo bloo goes the media. Did you hear that while we freak out, many will definitely die of malaria?</p>
<p>But malaria is only killing those brown people in far away places, so it’s okay. Bloo bloo bloo.</p>
<p>Yes, I’m cynical.</p>
<p>“This is a tough one. My elderly parents are very afraid of this and have both (divorced) contacted their gp’s to see they need to be on Tamiflu or the equivalent. I have kids all over the place…and we are very near an area that has had confirmed cases. I have told my parents and kids what they should be doing to be safe…but, there is NO way to be sure you won’t catch something like this. The one thing I feel somewhat safe about is that the death rate in the US is very low so far…yes, that can change. I have several very vulnerable people in my family, so we are keeping a close eye on it. I don’t want to panic prematurely, though…because that helps no one.”</p>
<p>Papengena, it would be a bad idea for anyone to take the antivirals in the absence of an infection. There is no proven benefit from using the medicines before symptoms develop, and there is proven harm: unnecessary widespread use of these drugs could produce drug-resistant viruses. And as someone else pointed out, that would be one less dose available for an actively sick person who would definitely need it.</p>
<p>Kelowna, the answer to your question is that it is impossible to know. The most conservative assumption is that neither person would have any immunity to this novel virus - that is the tack the CDC is taking. My limited experience with infection control is that there appears to be some carryover immunity to ordinary seasonal flu for people who get regular flu shots, but I do not have scientific data to back that observation. in other words, if you get a flu shot every year for five years, and you miss one year, you are less likely to get the flu than someone who has never had a flu shot and has not had flu in the last 5 years or so.</p>
<p>I’ve only had one flu shot in my life, so maybe I’ll be the test subject. I did have the flu once - about 12 years ago, but I doubt that will help much.</p>
<p>UCLARi,
“Even a relatively “low” mortality rate can lead to a lot of deaths if a strain is particularly virulent and you are unable to vaccinate against it.” - I believe that epidemic of high blood pressure and diabetese that kills thousands in this country is much wider spread than sensational swine flu. Why don’t we close all fast food joints and outlaw junk food? Because it is not politically correct. We are talking about swine flu with zero mortality rate in US (baby was Mexican visiting here) only becasue it creates sensation and it is politically correct.</p>
<p>I think I last had flu my senior year in high school, never had a flu shot. I’m not worried except that if someone gets sick at school and they panic and start cancelling SATs and APs. That would be awful!</p>
<p>Those of us with respiratory conditions are “at risk” and supposed to get our flu shots annually. I’ve been taking them regularly since 2000. My kids were taking them until we realized that it guaranteed they would get sick from each shot (the doc even tried splitting the dose so they got sick twice instead of just once from each 1/2 dose) & then the docs decided to give them a break & stop vaccinating them. The kids have been much happier & healthier w/o the vaccinations. I have gotten the “flu” twice since 2000 & both times started the Tamiflu (upon MD advice) immediately & it was truly remarkable how much of a difference it made.</p>
<p>The last time I had the flu, I went to the ER at the hospital I worked at. I have never been in so much pain in my life. I don’t know why, but they didn’t give me Tamiflu. With the worst sore throat I’ve ever had in my life, a 104 fever, and terrible body aches, I was kicking myself big time for not having gotten the free flu shot that had been offered to all of us as first line health care providers. They did give me some lortab elixir, which I took at home and helped me sleep my way through it. Horrible illness! I’ve never skipped a flu shot since.</p>
<p>According to CDC 36,000 people a year die in the U.S. from the flu. So far this one has killed only 1. So why exactly is everybody panicking?</p>
<p>One of the elementary schools in my (relatively small) town has shut down for today and tomorrow, when a student, who had travelled to Mexico on April vacation, came down with a fever. They are in the process of testing, and results should be back on Friday. Should the test be positive, word is that the entire school district will be closed for a week (child has siblings in middle school, high school). </p>
<p>I’m quite the skeptic - and think that this is pretty overblown. But, I also am feeling a bit anxious about getting on a plane for a short trip tomorrow! :P</p>
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<p>If you have a child studying pre-calculus or calculus, have them explain to you about exponentials.</p>