For colleges that admit by stats, the concept of a “reach” doesn’t make sense in most cases. An applicant would know a priori whether s/he is likely to be admitted. Some public unversities may use different criteria (or formulae) for OOS applicants so they may be viewed as “reaches” for those applicants.
I explicitly excluded any other consideration besides academics. For applicants who need merit scholarships, or any other requirment (such as athletics), they’d obviously have to make compromises.