<p>I am not surprised at the vehement defense of fracking in certain quarters, the same thing is going on in NYc where they are planning to allow fracking in NY State, in regions that happen to be zones that supply water to NYC and other places…and basically like in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, a lot of this is in the desperate attempt for rust belt towns that have experienced decades of decline seeing some hope for a decent economic future and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, I can understand when something gives hope.</p>
<p>The problem for me is the assumption that this comes without a cost and more importantly, that the oil and gas providers doing the drilling are going to put safety and environmental concerns above gold rush profits and sadly it is more likely then not they won’t, history is a guide. The lure of profits is just too great, and what has been shown time and again is greed sets in and you end up with disaster. Think Love Canal ended up the way it did because of a freak accident? The reason people ended up getting sick and dying is because the region so desperately needed jobs, that no one wanted to question what hooker chemical was doing. When people questioned GE dumping tons of pcb’s into the hudson river, the head of the NYC state DEP was fired because he was taking GE into court for violating federal environmental regulations, because GE threatened to leave the state and the Reagan era government wasn’t about to prosecute them either.</p>
<p>Time and again, when profits loom, reason and reasonable behavior go out the window and everything gets perverted. The current financial crisis was caused by the same kind of mentality that is driving fracking, people who should have known better, lured by the fools gold of insane instant profits, drove ahead with financial instruments they didn’t know how to price, banks eager to ‘get into the action’ both lent money to people trading these things and traded it themselves, and it cratered the economy. The idea that businesses somehow always act rationally is something that simply isn’t true, plenty of businesses have cratered doing stupid things and left disaster in its wake…</p>
<p>Does that mean we don’t do fracking? No, but it also means we should be really careful with it and not make assumptions like we can do this and assume that the industry has a vested interest in doing it safely, one thing about corporate beancounters,they will urge cutting corners anytime they can to ‘increase yield’, and with the economic pressure on states and localities, do you think they aren’t eager for the ‘gold to flow’ and won’t look the other way? This has happened time and again, and to assume ‘things are different now’ assumes that even if fracting itself is safe (and given the fact that as far as I know, there still are no long term studies of fracting and the safety of aquifiers and such) that companies won’t be looking to cut corners or otherwise find ways to make the gold flow even faster, one thing history has shown with gold rushes like this is that is more likely then not to happen. Enron happened because a bunch of greedy, smart people saw ways to manipulate the energy business to become insanely rich and stretched well into the area of the illegal (the california ‘energy crisis’ anyone?), manipulated markets, and ended up cratering, destroying a lot of people’s lives. </p>
<p>And ask yourselves this question, if fracting causes an environmental crisis, what happens to those property values? What happens when people get sick and die because some finance type saw a way to save a couple of bucks? </p>
<p>As far as fracting and such being hype, when something is promoted as a cure all the way fracting and nat gas has been, you are darn right it is hype. You see a shot in the arm economically, but bubbles have burst before, in a lot of places like Vegas people would tell you things were booming, housing prices were rising, jobs were plentiful, it was great…and in a couple of years, Vegas went from boom to bust, as did places like Tampa, Orlando and the like, because the boom was based on ‘irrational exuberance’ to quote greenspan.</p>
<p>I also work in a field where I understand the dynamics of the energy industry, and one thing I know for certain is that the kind of estimates for reserves and such are often complete hype, they are basically guestimates, often done in good faith, that don’t play out. I have seen estimates for oil reserves in shale out west that claim we would have enough oil to last 300 years at current rates of consumption, and the guy who did the actual survey said that was crap, that the numbers didn’t reflect that, and the official US government estimates put it at maybe supplying 10 years of oil, and more importantly, that much of that would be at significantly higher prices then what oil costs today…I have seen the estimates for natural gas reserves that can be picked up by fracking, and to my eyes they don’t gybe with what I know about how things work and what is out there…right now it is a gold rush mentality, people for various reasons see this as a panacea (cheaper energy, energy independance, economic boom) and reality is, it is likely nothing could be that good.</p>