Note that college admission decisions are not independent events. So it is not safe to assume that applying to two 50% chance schools means a 75% chance of at least one. Also, in many cases, you may not have any idea of the admission rate for applicants like you at colleges where the admission process is holistic and opaque.
I would not consider a school a match unless you have good information that applicants like you have about a two out of three chance of admission. But good information for this purpose may not exist for many highly selective small LACs.