Full ride or selective schools?

@TheGreyKing I do understand, I have seen what can happen with a list of just reached and safeties. I am trying to be strategic and figure out low matches like your son without doing more than 10 applications.

My cousin with amazing stats (perfect SAT, grades, rigor, valedictorian, voted most likely to attend an ivy etc.) ended up in a safety. She’s so smart and studious, we were shocked. She’s ok has a 4.0 and is on track to graduate early with research experience (plans to attend medical school) in a honors college.

I am going through the list of 100 percent need schools. It’s not easy to find ones that are medium size or part of a consortium that are low matches. Everyone wants grant money. Problem is I get to a point that the schools don’t satisfy my criteria and academically are not any better than UMCP so there’s no point to applying.

People on CC caution me to not go too low because I’ll get rejected (AO doubt I’ll enroll). While others warn that every school, no matter if I am 75%ile or above, is a reach. So what’s up?

Reach
Duke ED Really liked the campus and vibe
Brown legacy
Dartmouth
Vanderbilt
Wash U
Rice
Target
Emory
University of Richmond ?
Lehigh?
Safety
UMCP (Chance of some merit scholarships)
U of Alabama (guaranteed scholarship)