I get what @ucbalumnus is saying about admissions decisions not being independent events and I absolutely hold to that when it comes to the reach schools. But I think for the target level , it’s about as close as can be to being so for you, given your profile
If you were my kid, I’d feel confident that you’d get into at least 1 out of 4 match schools. I wish you’d gotten schools around 25-40% accept rates. Emory is at 15% RD and ED combined this year account to the class of 2023 news releases., which makes their Pure RD rate close to 10%. Even those target schools acceptances are independent events , do the math. I give you a better than average chance of acceptance because I think you are in the upper range of applicants.
I pretty much figured my youngest would either get into his first choice reach school ED and/ or get into at least one of his 4 Target/Reach. schools. He had 3 solid safeties that he liked just fine, so he was set. All 8 schools were early. Had he not gotten accepted ED, he would have played the lottery with some reach schools.
Your stats are better, you have legacy for Brown , URM advantage. However, you have an oversubscribed major, a school not as used to selective school admissions. I wish you had a few EA matches— those seem to be disappearing, both as EAs and as matches these days.
Another issue here is that selectivity appears to be a feature important to you, which it was not with my son. That makes it very difficult in finding schools that are matches because of the selectivity issue. Also Catholic schools tend to be EA, and those are off your list.
So, looks like you’ll do an ED paired with two safeties. If accepted ED, you’re done. If not , you have your safeties and you can play the lottery with highly selective schools and also look hard for match schools that you’d prefer to your safeties.