<p>Contrary to conventional wisdom on CC, I’m not persuaded geography is even a “tip factor.” Colleges do like to boast about how many states are “represented” in their student bodies (or entering classes), but all they need is one per state to make that boast. So unless you’re the only applicant from your state—or one of, say, five or six at the most selective schools—I don’t think it will help you all that much. From the (admittedly somewhat limited) data I’ve seen, the admit rate at elite colleges and universities is about the same for applicants from “underrepresented” as from “overrepresented” states.</p>
<p>Consider applicants to Princeton, one of the few schools that (helpfully) posts information on the geographic distribution of its entering class. In the Class of 2013 admitted in 2009, there were 4 Mississippians. Sounds pretty “underrepresented,” right? So how many applied? Well, we don’t know exactly because Princeton doesn’t tell us. But the College Board tells us that 61 Missisippians in the HS Class of '09 sent SAT scores (either SAT I or SAT II or both) to Princeton (each unique student sending SAT I and/or SAT II score reports is counted once, regardless of how many scores reports they sent). Now these may not all represent completed applications; some people probably sent scores but then were admitted ED somewhere else before completing their applications, or simply changed their minds before completing the application. But since Princeton requires ALL applicants to sent SAT II scores even if they submit the ACT in lieu of the SAT I, we can say that everyone who did apply to Princeton should be included in the 61 who submitted SAT scores, and 61 is an upper bound on the number of completed applications. Of those 61, only 4 ended up enrolling at Princeton, a rate of 6.5%.</p>
<p>In contrast, New Jersey is a classic “overrepresented” state at Princeton; 185 New Jerseyans enrolled in the Class of 2013. But 3,468 New Jerseyans sent SAT scores to Princeton. Of those who submitted SAT scores, 5.3% enrolled—not so very different from Mississippi’s 6.5%. (There’s no reason to assume a higher percentage of non-completion by SAT-submitters from either state). </p>
<p>Still, a slight edge for Mississippians, right? But that’s probably just statistical noise. Neighboring Alabama sent 5 kids to Princeton’s Class of 2103 out of 118 SAT-submitters, a rate of 4.2% (lower than NJ’s rate). Louisiana sent 4 of 98, or 4.1%. Tennessee sent 10 of 231, or 4.3%. Arkansas sent 4 of 74, or 5.4%. These percentage figures are all within a narrow range of 4.1% to 6.5%, with the NJ rate right in the middle; state-by-state variations appear to be just statistical noise. Indeed, for this 5-state South Central region as a whole, the rate is 4.8%, or a slight 0.5% below the NJ rate.</p>
<p>Bottom line, there’s just no evidence I’ve seen to support the well-traveled myth that admit rates at selective schools are higher for kids from “underrepresented” states. Kids from the Northeast and their anxious parents like to think they’re operating under some special disadvantage due to geography. They see large numbers of kids, including many well-qualified kids, applying to Princeton and similar schools, and they see most of them rejected. But that’s because Princeton rejects a lot of people from everywhere, including very well qualified applicants, regardless of geography—including applicants from “underrepresented” states.</p>
<p>Now if you’re applying to a small LAC that currently has no one in its student body from your state (and most LACs count geographic representation in the entire student body, not in any particular entering class), then geography might be a “tip factor.” But at the most selective universities, probably not; at least not if you’re from a state with a population as large as Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, or Arkansas, because there will be at least several dozen applicants from your state from which they can choose to make their unofficial “quota” of at least one from every state. (All states except Montana are represented in Princeton’s class of 2013, but 7 states have only 1 representative, 2 states have 2, 3 states have 3, and 5 states have 4; to get that few, they don’t need to use a higher admit rate).</p>