Getting at REAL ED Admit Rates for Unhooked Applicants

I can check/uncheck ED, EA, RD, then just count how many there are. Not sure how universal this function is in Naviance. I can’t separate ED1 from ED2 though.

Where would one find the number of athletes at any given school?

Ask Google how many athletes are at X school and you usually get an answer. Otherwise, the athletic website.

Google yielded a result the 3 times that I used it. YMMV

This is a great source: https://ope.ed.gov/athletics/#/institution/search. Look at the “unduplicated count” number.

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Re: athletes –

Not every varsity athlete applies ED, right?

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Virtually all athletes apply ED at selective schools. While it’s not 100%, it’s probably about 97% (this is my guess).

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Sounds about right. It’s a quid pro quo. Generally to obtain coach support, the applicant applies early.

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It’s probably a little different at D3 schools. I know there were kids at my student’s school who were still talking to NESCAC coaches and schools through the RD round. The NESCAC coaches typically have to rank their recruits for ED but still need to work to fill out their teams in RD. We know athletes at Conn College, Wesleyan, Trinity and Colby who were recruited that way.

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Recently at Emory - can’t account for unhooked but they said 50% of class comes from ED1

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It really depends on the sport, not so much the division.

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These are for ‘unhooked’ but IMO just attending Harvard-Westlake is a hook in itself (and being an athlete is a double hook). Certain schools are so connected that those students are getting a second look, a private tour, a call from the hs GC to the Admissions office.

Same is true with Catholic high school and applications to BC, Notre Dame, or Georgetown. The percentage of acceptance from a well known catholic high school is just higher at the more selective catholic colleges. Does MIT ‘know’ TJ in northern Virginia? Yes. Is the quarterback from Mater Dei getting special looks from BC (and USC)? You bet. I went to a public high school that has about 100 kids a year getting athletic scholarships/tips to D3 schools, service academies, and Ivies. It also has lots of non-athletic acceptances at top schoools. The AOs ‘know’ this school

I think the person that said the coaches are replacing 1/4 of the team is off a little. IMO, it is more like 1/3 as not all players play for 4 years either through transfer, injury, or just desire to stop playing. And be cautious at looking at the CDS for the last few years, even at Ivies and Top schools like Duke. Many athletes are still playing their Covid extra year(s). In 2024-25, Shiloh Sanders will play his SIXTH year of D1 football. A lot of Ivy lacrosse players are grad students (and might be playing at Duke or Hopkins now). Some coaches have been taking fewer freshman because they have players with seniority/experience.

NLI were never binding to that school, just that the student who signed one couldn’t play at another NLI school (so could go to an Ivy or service academy) for one academic year. The student could go to another school but just not get an athletic scholarship or play for that first year. Now with all the rule changes, I don’t even think the NLI would prevent the student from playing at another school (portal, other transfers, coach leaving, injury can all release the NLI commitment) They change so often I can’t keep up.

The admit rates for the vast majority of colleges does not imply a clear benefit for attending Harvard-Westlake (would need to know more about applicants to make a more specific statement). If there is a HW “hook”, it’s certainly not on par with the boost an applicant receives from being a recruited athlete.

Harvard-Westlake is a selective HS that considers scores for admission, resulting in a student body that has extremely high average test scores. I expect students also have rigorous classes. Among Harvard-Westlake students who rise to the top of this pre-selection of high achieving students, with the highest possible GPA grouping/rank and presumably also top test scores + top rigor, the 3-year admit rates were as follows for the listed colleges. Among top stat students at Harvard-Westlake, admission is by no means a slam dunk, like it would be for a top stat recruited athlete. For many colleges, it’s not even clear that the HW admit rate is higher than the overall average admit rate, for applicants with comparable top stats. ,

HW Admit Rate to Selected Colleges
Vanderbilt – 17% for highest GPA, 3%for 2nd highest GPA
Duke – 11% for highest GPA, 3% for 2nd highest GPA
Northwestern – 10% for highest GPA, 3% for 2nd highest GPA
Princeton – 7% for highest GPA, 0% for 2nd highest GPA

I am intentionally choosing lower admit rate colleges in the example above. There are also other colleges that show different patterns. I mentioned Chicago in an earlier post. Chicago shows an odd pattern where lower GPA applicants from HW have higher admit rate that top GPA applicants from HW. This may relate to some form of yield protection, including higher rates of applying ED/ED II among the not top GPA kids.

Chicago – 21% admit rate for highest GPA. 43% admit rate for 2nd highest GPA

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I don’t think this is completely accurate. HW used to provide two sets of admissions data, one for hooked kids and one for unhooked. The difference in acceptance rates between the groups for most top schools was remarkable. Those without hooks seem to have as small (or smaller) chance of getting into most top schools than students anywhere. In contrast, those with hooks had a much, much better chance.

That said, there are certain schools (Chicago, NYU, U Mich, Wash U) who seem to accept lots of HW kids at higher rates than others, even when the kids aren’t really at the top of the class. But these are the exception.

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The student athletes I am remembering joined teams for swim and dive, lacrosse, soccer, and tennis.

Again, such a great source.

Do you have any insight into why the unduplicated number is so much lower than the total number at many schools?

I find it hard to believe that there are that many multi-sport athletes.

Track and field is one reason. It is very common for kids to run both indoor and outdoor track and much of the XC team will overlap with the T&F middle and long distance runners at many schools in my experience. Though even with that the gaps look pretty high for some of the schools that I just looked at.

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Some of these teams are massive, like rowing. 95 female rowers at Princeton!

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Track and Field and Cross Country often have the same athletes. Lacrosse and field hockey. I think a lot of the athletes played two sports in high school and would like to play more than one in college but that’s hard because the seasons overlap.

My daughter’s team was new to the school, so they had to ‘borrow’ 4 players from the soccer team. Two stayed for the second year but two only played one season. They were already in school so would have only been counted in the soccer statistics for admissions, not lacrosse. They’d never played lacrosse before (and boy, could you tell! Lightening fast, but couldn’t pass or catch).

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What % of the grads at HW fall into the “highest GPA” category, and what % into “2nd highest”?