Good physics/astronomy school with merit

Just to clarify, I never stated the equivalent of elite athletes. What I stated was that students need exceptional ECs. Those ECs, however, do not have to have anything to do with sports. Winners of competitive scholarships at the schools you listed are going to stand out in some way–significant community involvement (and I do not mean volunteer hrs; I mean involved in doing something that dramatically impacted their local community), national/international awards, etc. Who they won’t be is your typical great student with grades and test scores and nothing remarkable on their resume. That is just the reality of the situation. When competing for these types of scholarships, kids aren’t competing against local or regional applicants, but against the top kids across the country.

I’ll use 2 of my kids as examples. Our ds graduated from high school having completed multiple in-major math and physics courses. He had a list of honors and camps like SSP. He worked with prof on research during high school. He did not receive any extremely competitive scholarships at any of the schools he applied to other than RRS (formerly CBH) at Bama (40 kids are selected, a handful receive additional scholarship $$). Our dd, otoh, was awarded multiple top competitive scholarships and had her pick to choose from. Her application included 2 international awards (including representing the US) and multiple regional awards. She also had a very unique EC that only involved her, but what she managed to achieve was pretty significant for a high school student. From this side of the application process (meaning not on the admissions side), that is what I see as the difference between being selected and not.

I can share where my ds attended, but his reasons may not make the same sense for your student. Our ds needed a school that would allow him to take grad level courses b/c of the level he was at when he graduated from high school. We also needed his scholarship $$ to pay for those grad courses (many do not and grad courses are expensive). His top priority, other than available courses/scholarship, was access to research. Those factors eliminated a lot of schools. Ultimately, after all acceptances were received and all scholarships awarded, Bama ended up being 100% scholarship funded. He was accepted into their research honors program. Students can take grad courses as an UG. He really liked the profs that he met in the dept. So, that made his decision for him. He had other choices that covered full-tuition, but none that he liked better than Bama.

For him, it was the right decision. He excelled and they were incredibly supportive. He is where he wants to be now on the other side of UG.