<p>Look at it this way: 1/4 of the entering class at any law school will be below that school’s 25th percentile in GPA. Within that fraction of the class—concededly marginal admits, but a numerically large group—marginal differences in GPA are not going to affect USN rankings one way or the other. Remember, USN cares about medians, not means, so if the school’s 25th percentile GPA is 3.50, then as far as USN rankings are concerned a 3.49 and a 3.0 are equivalent numbers, both in the bottom quartile. At the level of deciding who gets into that bottom part of the class, then, everyone is “tied” on GPA. Or, more precisely, GPAs are reduced in importance to just one more “soft factor” used in determining candidate strength. At that level, a 3.0 from Harvard is, rightly or wrongly, going to count for a whole lot more than a 3.0 from Podunk State, and in the minds of some admissions committee members the Harvard 3.0 might very well count for a whole lot more than a 3.49 from Podunk State. </p>
<p>But it doesn’t stop there. Another large fraction of the class, possibly as much as another quarter, will have GPAs above the 25th percentile, but LSAT scores below the 25th percentile. Within that group, marginal differences in LSAT scores won’t matter, for all the same reasons that marginal differences in GPA don’t matter for the sub-25th percentile GPA group. But marginal differences in GPA won’t really matter for this group, either, so long as they’re between the 25th and 75th percentile. Any GPA between a 25th percentile 3.50 and a 75th percentile figure of, say, 3.75 has exactly the same impact on the USN rankings—that is to say, none. So for this group, too, GPAs within a very large band are effectively “ties.” </p>
<p>Adding those two groups together, that means for as much as half the entering class, marginal differences in GPAs are simply irrelevant, except as one of many “soft indicators” of candidate strength. </p>
<p>On the other hand, if the median 25th percentile GPA is sitting at 3.50 then a 3.51 from Podunk State is going to beat a 3.49 from Harvard every time, because the Podunk State applicant marginally pulls up the 25th percentile median while the Harvard 3.49 marginally pulls it down. Sometimes small, seemingly statistically insignificant differences in numbers are determinative. Sometimes even seemingly large numerical disparities are of trivial importance. It just depends on what they mean (if anything) toward those 25th and 75th percentile scores. </p>
<p>I think it’s a grave error to think law school admissions is purely a numbers game. It’s more of a numbers game than is healthy, and the effect of USN rankings is clearly pernicious. But at the end of the day, it’s not just about numbers, and anyone who thinks it is is badly deluding himself…</p>