<p>thoughts and prayers with all of you in the Southeast…</p>
<p>H is a Red Cross volunteer…he’s on his way now to the warehouse here in Charlotte—they are getting filled up with supplies so that they can quickly leave with relief supplies if/when needed. This is a new warehouse that was established after Katrina to help support the Southeast. Everyone is on full alert already.</p>
<p>Love your post jymmie (#10)…says it all and says it well. After all, we are not lacking in threads where giddy speculation about the potential effect of killer natural disasters on Republicans is welcome. I think this should be the thread where we keep each other informed and pass along support.</p>
<p>btw…I saw an recent update with the center of the cone of probability shifted a little to the west (Lafayette/New Iberia area). Not hoping for a hit on the land of my alma mater, but I do hope NOLA is spared. So I’ll be thinking of all the Tulane and Loyola parents and students and our other NOLA residents (from the potentially precarious location of Houston…haha). I hope all goes well for all of us.</p>
<p>ldmom - as you well know, though, a littl shift to the west could be worse for NO. The worst part of the storm is the northeast quadrant. If it’s going to shift left, it needs to veer left… that would give it a better chance of impacting a less populous area.</p>
<p>As you also know… Houston is inland enough that they’d never get the devastation that Galveston would. It would be quite a mess, but Houston wouldn’t have near the damage NO would. I say this with the knowledge that I have lots of family still there (including Pearland).</p>
<p>One thing I’ve always wondered, though… with a storm tracking just to the west of Houston, could a tidal surge come up through Galveston Bay, through the Houston Ship Channel, and cause flooding inland that far, as far as the Port of Houston?</p>
<p>teri - I think there is a situation that varies quite a bit. A hit to the west of NOLA would at least push Lake Ponchartrain waters northward instead of southward into the city levees. My understanding is what made Katrina so devasting is the Pass Christian hit to the east which forced tides through Lake Borgne into Lake P. (I may be wrong about this…but made sense to me when it was explained to me.)</p>
<p>Also, when we were watching Rita track toward a Freeport hit, we were warned that Fort Bend, Richmond, Katy and Cypress areas would feel hurricane force winds for an extended amount of time. Something about the curving turn of the storm once it made landfall made those inland areas the most dangerous for strong winds. That’s why so many people in the western suburbs freaked out and tried to leave at the last minute…which was, of course, impossible. As it turns out, we slept through the whole thing while it made a last minute turn and devastated the area just east of Houston. If you look at a map of the Texas coastline, you’ll see what I mean.</p>
<p>The answer to your question about the westerly hit and tides is yes. We are constantly warned of this scenario here in Houston. Pasadena, Ship Channel, etc…same principal that would drive Lake P away from NOLA would cause flood devastation in Houston all the way into Loop 610. Even Med Center would be at risk.</p>
<p>^^^ wow… so it sounds as if the biggest potential for damage would be flooding. I’m not trying to minimize those areas of Ft. Bend, etc. but while they’d get hurricane force winds, wouldn’t they be somewhat downgraded from what they would be, say around Surfside? Would this surge extend into Buffalo Bayou?</p>
<p>What is the story I remember from several years ago (flooding from some storm) that created havoc at the Med Center? I remember all the flooding and evacuations they had to make (people who have never seen the Texas Medical Center may not have an appreciation of how HUGE it is and what an ordeal this could be).</p>
<p>That was Allison - horrible storm…HUGE flooding. I remember being in the back yard in the height of that storm, wasting the pool to a flooded street, trying to keep it from overflowing or filling with sewer water, which was what happened to our neighbor…pool full of stinky mud. (That’s the day I decided swimming pools were highly overrated.) We were to go on vacation that very day, but literally could not leave our home or drive anywhere in Houston because of flooded underpasses and roads. It did look eerily like NOLA during Katrina in places. Difference for Houston was that we could drain naturally…NOLA had to be pumped dry.</p>
<p>As far as the west hit and winds…it just depends on the storm. Remember at one point, Rita had 180 mph winds, 4th most intense storm recorded, top in terms of intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Due south from the western suburbs is the Gulf and only about 80 miles of low land, primarily the huge Brazos river bottom. If that thing had come on shore at Freeport at 180 mph, would not have been much degradation as it plowed a lot of the westside of Houston.</p>
<p>Damn. The maps on nhc.noaa with both storms on the same map are overwhelming. Odd that Florida is just outside both cones of major probability. Given that I am a stone’s throw away from Port St. Lucie, (and my car is in the shop with transmission problems sitting next to 26 cars totalled by the insurance adjuster due to the flood water of Fay at just this one dealership) I am hoping Hanna turns out to sea. The canals are full, lake O is up, the water from the Kissimmee watershed area is still heading into the lake, and we can’t handle any more soaking rain. </p>
<p>I agree that any of us skirting the gulf still have to be scared of Gustav. He could turn and hit just about anywhere, Florida, Texas, and anywhere in between.</p>
<p>true sunny…it’s just too early to tell. My prayer is when Gustav hits those Gulf waters, we don’t see the rapid strenghthening like Rita. During Rita, we went to bed with a minor tropical storm out there and by noon the next day had a Cat 2 hurricane. That one made the transition from Cat 3 to 4 to 5 over two hour time spans.</p>
<p>Here’s an interesting wiki about the Loop Current that contributes to intensification. (Someone has even updated it with a sensational little blurb about Gustav.)</p>
<p>[Loop</a> Current - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia](<a href=“http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Current]Loop”>Loop Current - Wikipedia)</p>
<p>For once, I won’t complain if the meteorologists have gotten this thing wrong!</p>
<p>Thanks, ldmom, for the kind words and for the info on the loop current. Very helpful information. </p>
<p>teriwtt-
Totally agree-- I hope the meteorologists are totally off base. That said, I now wish my s was on a flight out today instead of tomorrow, but, it is what it is. We had a call from a neighbor whose daughter is driving back today. If we hadn’t booked the ticket we’d have definitely taken them up on the offer of the ride. Depending on how much stuff is in their car, we’ll see if they have room to take him back (I am staying focused on the goal that all will be well and they will be going back in a few days). I wish these storms would just burn themselves out and fizzle away…</p>
<p>ldmom - I just got around to reading about the Loop Current. That is fascinating. So knowing that information, let’s hope Gustav just kind of jumps over that spot, or moves through it so fast that it leaves dust in its trail.</p>
<p>P.S. ldmom - what news sources do you use to keep up to date on this storm. When I had to erase everything on my hard drive last spring, I lost all my favorites (which included a lot of weather sites). Am looking to recreate it, and wonder what you find helpful.</p>
<p>teriwtt,
I cant speak for ldmom, but I’ve been using the national hurricane site and one called intellicast (see post # 17) that was recommended by someone from NASA</p>
<p>Thanks Jym626, we won’t know if we’re out of the way until it gets into the Gulf, but it is looking good for us - our bad ones come straight between the tip of the Yucatan and Cuba or from the Bay of Campeche.</p>
<p>Sending good thoughts and prayers to NOLA. Need to call SIL in Houston, she’s in League City, nice house that looks as if the whole subdivision was built in a drained swamp, lakes all around and the bay (Kemah), almost within eyeshot. DH and I, now old hurricane hands, took one look at her neighborhood and said No way!</p>
<p>Thinking of all of you. Wishing and hoping.</p>
<p>hi all…just in from the football game. Tired, sweaty band mom…but thrilled to see ldboy playing with the drumline. He worked so hard for that spot. Had my first look at a hurricane update in over 12 hours…and it occurs to me I’ll probably need to make a run for batteries and water, just in case.</p>
<p>re: weather sites teri…I’ve just been checking khou.com because, even though he recently retired, Dr. Neil Frank is still involved when it comes to hurricanes. But I think jym’s suggestions are good…I plan to check them out.</p>
<p>Btw…someone explain to me why I-10 into Houston is jammed with Louisiana residents fleeing the storm. Are they nuts? Go NORTH people.</p>
<p>Forgot to mention this website too-- it has those nifty computer model predictions that look like spaghetti! [Tropical</a> Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground](<a href=“Hurricane & Tropical Cyclones | Weather Underground”>Hurricane & Tropical Cyclones | Weather Underground)</p>
<p>That IS nifty jym…coordinates with what looks like the latest projections…now through Lake Charles into East Texas. (Like that one model that appears to have the storm bounce off the Louisiana coast and back into the Gulf…God forbid.)</p>
<p>100 mph winds and Cat 2 as of a few minutes ago.</p>
<p>Here’s another interesting website-- with lots of scary interactive stuff. Swell. <a href=“Weather Intelligence and Analytics - Everstream AI”>Weather Intelligence and Analytics - Everstream AI;
<p>(Look at the options in the upper right hand corner to do the tracking, trends, etc)</p>