<p>jym - what year is your son at Tulane? Was he there for Katrina? I remember when Katrina went through, many, many schools sort of ‘adopted’ Tulane students for the semester. I only remember it because I think my D’s school (Syracuse) was the first one to extend the invitation to Tulane students, then many, many others followed through. I would hope that they would at least offer some alternatives if students can’t get back within a week or two. How are the students being kept informed of Tulane’s status?</p>
<p>Some cautious good news. The 5-day storm track for Hanna shows a northwestward turn towards the central Florida coast ([Tropical</a> Storm HANNA](<a href=“POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA)%5DTropical”>POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA)). The detailed forecast might discuss some reasons why Hanna is not expected to intensify as much as Gustav (although it’s in thorough meteorological speak, which I don’t fully understand). The wind prediction charts are not nearly as scary as Gustav (now cat 4), either: [Tropical</a> Storm HANNA](<a href=“POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA”>POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA)</p>
<p>These things obviously change quite often, but that’s the 11pm report from the national hurricane center.</p>
<p>washdad - if you go back and check the link provided on the Loop Current, it will help you understand why storms in the Gulf can be so nasty. The Atlantic just doesn’t have the warmer temperatures to fuel the storms. I’d be curious to know how far north up the Atlantic coast a Cat 4 or 5 has ever been. </p>
<p>I know… you guys make up for it with your N’easters. The problem with Hanna might be if it crosses Florida and reenters into the Gulf and strengthens again. I hope your latest report shows that is less likely to happen. </p>
<p>Also, storms that stay in the Atlantic Coast have more of a probability of going back out to sea and not having landfall anywhere. Once a storm enters the Gulf, it never just fizzles out; it hits land somewhere. They can weaken, but they always hit.</p>
<p>My DD was an incoming freshman for Katrina. Shortest freshman orientation in history: “Here’s your room key, put your stuff in your room and get out.” The evacuation and semester away was a real learning experience, one that she values. She’s in Fort Worth with friends right now, and I’ve told her that it’s likely that Tulane classes won’t start until Monday. Based on what I’ve seen in New Orleans over the past three years, I don’t think the hurricane danger is anywhere near what it was before Katrina.</p>
<p>Here’s the bad part. While many billions have been invested in New Orleans, less populated areas have received much less support. Here is a satellite view of Gulfport/Biloxi. See all that green along the coast? It used to be pink (representing buildings).</p>
<p>[Gulfport</a> and Biloxi - Satellite Photo - GEOLOGY.COM](<a href=“http://geology.com/satellite/gulfport-biloxi-satellite-image.shtml]Gulfport”>http://geology.com/satellite/gulfport-biloxi-satellite-image.shtml)</p>
<p>Here’s an article about the evacuations in south Louisiana for anyone interested:</p>
<p>[2theadvocate.com</a> | News | Hurricane Evacuation Listings by parish — Baton Rouge, LA](<a href=“http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/27705709.html]2theadvocate.com”>http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/27705709.html)</p>
<p>The 3-day track for Hanna shows a continuing northward trend. The 5-day track shows the slowly-moving storm heading for the Georgia-Carolinas coast. A lot of Atlantic hurricanes turn northeast and blow out to sea. </p>
<p>Teri, some huge hurricanes have hit the mid-Atlantic coast. The Hurricane of 1938 devastated Connecticut. Not as common, of course, as in the lower latitudes, they do happen. Since Hanna is a poorly-formed storm that even now is still not a hurricane, it’s not looking as ominous (I am not a meteorologist). Unless it makes a huge west turn, it’s not likely to be the “double hurricane” people were worried about for the Gulf Coast. Please.</p>
<p>teriwtt-
DS is a freshman-- first experience with the evacuations. Tulane has a network of emails and on line emergency posts and text messaging system and phone call-in line all in place. The computer servers have been moved to PA so they dont expect an interruption, and there will be a live on line chat at 3:30 Central time today with the president, who is on his way to Nashville. So, we watch and wait…</p>
<p>jym626 - glad to hear your son made it home ok. My mom is here now. We also watch and wait. Sure hope nothing happens to nola. It will be an expensive evacuation, but the alternative is worse. Some friends of ours called us last night. They’d gone to the H’s parents in BR, but his mom is so scared they are now on their way to Nashville. I think that’s overreacting a little, but their son, a hs senior who had to spend 9th grade in Houston, is also very fearful. He thinks he’s going to spend 12th grade in another city. Plus he’s got a lot of college auditions being prepped at NOCCA and fears he won’t get back to NOCCA again. They are hoping some “vacation” type activities in Nashville will take the family’s mind off the storm.</p>
<p>I saw the Hanna track and it looks a lot better than yesterday. My MIL is in Florida, so I want Hanna to go back out to sea. Hoping and praying all nola suffers is an expensive evacuation. And teriwtt, I too remember the hurricane tracking charts and filling them out in pencil and never knowing for sure how things would turn out. I also remember duck and cover. God, I’m old.</p>
<p>I’m hearing on the news that they expect a surge between 12 and 18 feet. I’m not sure what Katrina’s surge was at New Orleans, but I’ve read that it peaked at 25 feet. I wonder if Gustav has the same potential.</p>
<p>I too remember the grocery bag tracking charts! We weathered a Cat 3 in our home - someone described it perfectly when they said, “it’s like being in a car wreck — that takes ALL DAY!” </p>
<p>My DD and a large group went directly to St. Paul. I think their protest trip is turning into a typical college road trip, though, esp. now that Bush and Cheney are skipping the convention.</p>
<p>S arrived here (Atlanta area) late Friday night with 2 friends and 2 other friends caravanned here as well. All five of these boys are seniors and experienced the Katrina semester as freshmen. I can tell you that although they are trying to stay positive, they are all very worried about not being able to return. But, as one of them said, “at least we’re together”.</p>
<p>The first time S went through this, he was a brand new freshman, knew no one and ended up at his state school for 1st semester. At least this time, he is with friends who ALL have been through this and are helping each other deal with it again.</p>
<p>I cannot tell you how much I am praying for their ability to have their lives back in New Orleans as they left them so suddenly on Friday. These boys have been through enough.</p>
<p>Have been out working today, but was able to listen to MSNBC on the XM radio while driving. The whole state of Louisiana seems so well prepared; this brightens my hopes that not any lives (or few if any) will be lost. I was really impressed with the organization, backup plans, etc. It doesn’t mean there might not be property damage, but I am optimistic that the loss of human life will be minimized. </p>
<p>Tulane has really studied this possibility deeply and been proactive. I just think it’s so cool that they can just up and move their whole server to Pennsylvania. Hopefully these kids feel a sense of connection through the president’s on-line chat. I just can’t believe it’s happening again, so soon. What did they say Katrina was… a 50-year storm?</p>
<p>I think Katrina was a 500 year storm. That is why nola is so upset that all they are getting from ACE is 100 year protection. I think the definition is just probabilities, of course, not that well, if we just got hit then it’ll be 100 years before it happens again. It is my impression that the repairs to the levees are designed for a 100 year storm at Cat 3, not a 500 year storm/Cat 5. Almost sounds like a car warranty. Of course, the levees in place in 2005 were supposedly designed for Cat 3 protection and that’s what Katrina was when it made landfall. The 17th street canal floodwalls were not overtopped, but they collapsed anyway.</p>
<p>well, the last report I heard is that it is barely a cat 3; cat 3 starts at 111 mile per hour winds, and Gustav had 115. It also seems to be moving out of the Loop Current pretty quickly… not sitting there gaining strength (not that they don’t expect it to gain strength), but it’s different than if it had pulled out of the Loop Current as a 5.</p>
<p>Yes, what I just saw said 111 mph and a slightly more westerly course. There are hurricane warnings all the way to Houston now, but with emphasis more on Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange, Texas. They expect a 10 to 15 foot storm surge into Lake Pontchatrain. When they show you the satellite photos it seems the heaviest activity is south and west of the eye, which is a little unusual I think. Much, much better evacuation of New Orleans itself this time. Also the low lying parishes. Contraflow seems to have worked more smoothly as well. I think a lot of people got out early this time.</p>
<p>Thank you so much teriwtt for your concern and attention.</p>
<p>I think the angle of the expected path is what concerns me most for NOLA. It’s such a graduated almost horizontal path that the water may pile up in Ponchartrain in almost the same way as during Katrina…even though this is a west of NOLA hit. It would have been much better for NO if it had just come straight in on a northern track. We are even being cautioned here in Houston to be alert because if the path flattens out as is expected and the turn to the west happens before landfall, we’ll get wind too.</p>
<p>Definitely not a good thing for NOLA to be on the eastern side of the storm… but it is what it is. Tulanes’ latest plan is to postpne reopening due to the mandatory evacuation. If all goes well and they are able to return quickly, Tulane buildings will reopen Sat, the dorms on Sun and classes on Mon.</p>
<p>Dodging a bullet over here. We’ve had one good rain band - a little thunder, some sideways rain and bursts of hard wind - picked up 1/2 inch rain in 10 minutes. About 3-4 more hours before things pick up here.</p>
<p>curiouser and NewHope33,</p>
<p>Really thinking of you and all of the now-senior-then-freshman students and parents from Katrina. I was one of you, as you know; but DS long gone due to elimination of his major. Can’t say I am grateful to no longer be one of you, as the trauma of being excised from Tulane after Katrina was real. But I do know my stress level does not even touch the tiniest fraction of what you and yours are experiencing.</p>
<p>Thinking of you, too, jym and cangel and all others on the Gulf Coast.</p>
<p>Wishing and hoping, still.</p>
<p>jmmom-
I was just thinking of you and what you went through as we were taking the kid who flew in with our s. from the airport over to Emory, and I started thinking about “plan B” – schools, housing, transportation (DS totalled his car in July) etc etc etc. I cannot imagine what that must have been like, and agreed, for those seniors who have now been through this twice. I simply cannot imagine. Thanks to allwho hav been supportive and understanding. Lets hope the levees still hold out and that the hurricane season “blows by” easily.</p>
<p>Things are looking good here, a little flooding down on the actual coast, some power outages. Haven’t heard about beach erosion which is a big concern here.
We’re keeping our fingers crossed for the levees to homd NOLA, prayers for the good folks there and those in TX who will be getting big rain.</p>
<p>On to Hanna and Ike.</p>