Just because someone was exposed to hantavirus doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to be infected by it. It’s just not that infectious. Hantavirus isn’t measles.
Also a young, healthy individual can have no or very mild symptoms if they do get infected.
However, once the infection advances to HPS, it’s has a 50% mortality rate.
According to Health officials track dozens who left hantavirus-stricken ship after 1st fatality , patient zero’s wife left the ship 4/24 at St. Helena, flew to South Africa, and later died while in South Africa on 4/26 (patient zero died on the ship on 4/11; body was disembarked on 4/24). Another passenger showed symptoms on 4/28 and died on the ship on 5/2.
Another comment on a ny times article:
An epidemiology study of an outbreak of Andes hanta in 2018 in South America said that an infected man with a fever gave it to another attendee of a birthday party after an interaction lasting seconds at a distance of 1-2 feet.
Van Kerkhove at WHO didn’t establish much credibility for herself with her constant backpedaling of statements during COVID. Now she’s the mouthpiece of this
And another comment
The “sustained contact” threshold is in materially weaker footing than public health messaging currently implies. NYT and most other media are following this messaging but would be wise to probe it a bit.
The scientific consensus that Andes hantavirus requires “sustained close contact” to transmit person-to-person is based on a small number of household and community outbreaks in rural Argentina and Chile. It has never been observed or studied in transit environments like aircraft, cruise ship cabins, airports. The extrapolation from one setting to the other is assumed but this is not established from a significant body of evidence.
The public health messaging—including WHO’s—is extrapolating from household and clinical outbreak data to settings that are structurally different.
Good article about hantavirus.
Given that this Andes strain is so localized, the port of Ushuaia should probably implement strict screening procedures for cruises that start there. Or maybe don’t start any cruises there for a while?
The fact that small outbreaks have occurred there without spreading internationally is somewhat encouraging.
Several US states are monitoring passengers from the cruise:
Off topic, but … My brother, an avid birder, has a birder friend who was severely mauled by a bear while birding a couple years ago.
A series of updates:
On ABC news tonight they said they won’t be quarantined; that decision must have been changed
Two additional passengers tested positive for the virus.
This is disturbing. And reputable. Gift link
Excellent article. This struck me in particular:
If we’re lucky, this hantavirus outbreak will peter out, or resemble the 2002 SARS outbreak: It dies out with the help of safety measures and because the virus doesn’t adapt fast enough.
In other words, health officials need to take it seriously, people need to be informed, and individuals must do their part to assist in stopping the spread.
Here’s another view from an epidemiologist I trust:
“The risk to you remains extremely low, and, thankfully, we have systems in place to address this rare disease. There is no need to cancel trips and this is not another Covid-19. The most important thing you can do is help spread accurate information. Triple-check sources, don’t spread unverified rumors, but DO share reputable and verified information. This includes information from the WHO, local health departments, and reputable public health leaders.”
This is the hardest one. As past experience shows, even such a minor inconvenience as wearing a mask could be met with a serious resistance.
Another problem in this respect is people wearing masks poorly, or using less effective masks after more effective ones became readily available. I.e. people think that they are being “safe” but are not really.
What about the folks banging the drum on ivermectin (again)? Is there a deserted island they can be relocated to (with no internet access) until the current wave of infections is over?
While I like Your Local Epidemiologist, and subscribe to the newsletter, I don’t entirely agree with her. I DO agree that the risk right now is extremely low, and I agree trips shouldn’t be canceled.
I don’t agree that we have “systems in place” that are foolproof (quarantine at home for 40 days, anyone? No conact tracing of the initial batch of departees etc). I also don’t think we can definitively say “this is not another covid 19”. I agree, it very likely isn’t, but until we see how many, if any, further infections there are, I don’t think we can make such pronouncements.
I also am dismayed that initially officials said it was difficult to have person to person transmission, but it turns out it is not that difficult according to the 2018 study of the Andes outbreak in Argentina. Will it be difficult this time? We don’t know yet.