Has al Qaeda over-played its hand?

Parent Cafe
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<p>“Mission Accomplished.”
“Only a few dead-enders…”
“Insurgency in its last throes…”</p>

<p>And the nominations for the next memorable lines of miscalculation/stupidity/lies/spin:</p>

<p>“Iraqis want freedom” [other than freedom to oppress their enemies]
“We can stand down as the Iraqis stand up.”
“We’re winning.”</p>

<p>Well, we’ve probably got body counts in our favor but the game has become a multi-polar intramural contest that’s leaving the U.S. troops sorting out whose side they’re on…it’s a hell of a thing when some Sunnis are looking to the U.S. as a buffer against the Shiites. It would be easier if there were a plurality of Iraqis who defined themselves as “Iraqi” before anything else. Unfortunately, they are relatively few in number.</p>

<p>At the moment, there’s a deadlock keeping the Iraqi government from being formed. Regardless of the outcome (Jaafari or not), the U.S. interests are probably truly screwed. In the meantime, the lack of a central functioning central government raises the relative power of the mullahs and the militias. And for the fans keeping score in the stands, the next significant milestone is who gets the Interior Ministry…my bet is still on someone from SCIRI. Cheers.</p>

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Why does General Nash hate America? Why does he say such things, not supporting the troops? He should be drafted and sent to Iraq.</p>

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<p>Cool. Then nothing’s changed except that the major religious factions have learned how to work together to reduce the risk that the “civil war” will spread out of control. And the Iraqi army is strong enough to contain it rather than split over it. As one observer noted, when you have a real civil war, the military chooses sides. See any decent biography of Robert E. Lee. This seems to be a case of whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.</p>

<p>Of course, by General Nash’s critieria, the Phillipines, India and several countries I could name have been involved in low intensity civil wars for decades. Don’t even think about the IRA and Northern Ireland. What’s his point, particularly now that this one incident seems to have ensured that the risk of the “civil war” spreading is sharply reduced?</p>

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<p>Fine. Mission accomplished: No civil war</p>

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<p>Anyone who claims that the Presidency of Dubya is one of the worst in our great nation’s history is just plain stupid. Why?</p>

<ol>
<li><p>Will have amassed a national debt greater that all prior presidencies combined, a debt our children and grandkids will be saddled with.</p></li>
<li><p>Led us into an intractable war based on lies. Why do I say lies? Because it is well known fact that they cherry picked intelligence which fit their purpose and used informants who were suspect at best.</p></li>
<li><p>Oversaw the worst natural disaster in our nation’s history and performed miserably. There are over 10,000 mobile homes moldering in Arkansas which were purchased with our tax dollars. Few SBA loans have been processed. And massive cleanup has yet to be completed. Compare this with the efforts after Hurricanes Andrew, Hugo and others.</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more that democratic elections and Hammas?</p></li>
</ol>

<p>5.Need I say more than the K Street Project, Delay and Abramoff?</p>

<ol>
<li><p>Need I say more that the Dubai port deal? A nation who has laundered money to Muslim terrorists, denies the right of Israel to exist, whose citizens were directly involved in the 9-11 tragedy, whose royal family has met with OBL, and a government which OBL is claiming to have infiltrated.</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than nuclear proliferation and the India deal? India’s nuclear weapons program gets our blessing and we get mangos in return.</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than the Medicare prescription plan? And remember that the administration lied about its cost. And what company CEO would ever agree to a major program where the company could NOT use it purchasing clout to negotiate cost concessions from suppliers?</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than Halliburton Cheny and oil folks meeting secretly to hammer out an energy policy?</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than the President rushing back from another vacation to act on a Schaivo bill which intruded into the very private life of a husband and his dying wife?</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than tax cuts which overwhelmingly favor the most wealthy of our citizens.(Thanks George, I welcome than additional $10,000+ every year)</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than the financial gap between the top 5% wealthy families and the bottom 25% is the greatest in our nations history(Yeah, there is a scarcity of marina space for mega-yatchs)</p></li>
<li><p>The income gap between CEO’s and there workers is at the highest in our nation’s history and CEO salary does not seem to be related in any significant way to company performance. No one should object to Jack Walsh’s salary package but for many others, well it boggles the mind.</p></li>
<li><p>N Korea may have tested a missle today. Need I say more?</p></li>
<li><p>Kharzai rules in a Kabul neighborhood but the Taliban and war lords control most of the Afghanistan and opium production is at a peak.</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than “Where is Osama?”</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than the among the laziest presidents ever given his trips to Crawford “ranch”, bike rides in Maryland and in bed by 9pm. Oh yeah and “I don’t read newspapers” that was a classic.</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than “Mission Accomplished” and “cakewalk”?</p></li>
<li><p>And when was the last time OUR President had the courage to attend an OPEN forum of HIS countrymen and countrywomen in an open forum?</p></li>
<li><p>Need I say more than “My Pet Goat”?</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Oh the list could go on and on. But anyone who says that this Presidency had been anything but an unmitigated disaster is a fool.</p>

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<p>Strick, I don’t know how you reached your conclusion: the dimension of Shiite-on-Sunni attacks has ramped up greatly since the mosque at Sammara was destroyed. And the problem with the Iraqi military is that very few units are “national” in character, with most being proxies for one faction or another.</p>

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<p>Heigthened tensions, even violence don’t equate to all out civil war. The evidence shows that the act, which most in Iraq attribute to an Al Qaeda attempt to provoke a civil war, simply hasn’t achieved that purpose. If anything, it’s made Al Qaeda an even greater target of both sides. See the posts above. Hard to excape that conclusion.</p>

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<p>I’ve seen no evidence to support that. Can you cite some relevant to tthe civil war question?</p>

<p>originaloog, thanks for sharing. Did you have something relevant to say or are you just cruising threads to find opportuntities to vent about Bush?</p>

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<p>Anyway, what is really missing in the news is real scrutiny/understanding of the Badr brigades. They are now said to number upwards of 10,000 (more than a 100 times the size of the “Sheik’s militia”) and, in some areas, are already stronger than the Iraqi military. Whereas Ayatollah Sistani has played his hand slowly, knowing that regardless of what the U.S. does, he inherits the country eventually, Sadr and his brigades seem to be positioning themselves for leadership in the civil war - whether now or six months from now.</p>

<p>Meanwhile, it is now 5 months since Murtha said we should get out. I’m sure we’ve all witnessed the great progress that has taken place since then (as well as the cowardice of the Democrats), and can be assured that further progress along these lines will be made in the future decade.</p>

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Well, at least we agree on something. But perhaps “stupid” is too perjorative. Ill-informed, politically biased, closed-minded may be more appropriate</p>

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<p>Strick, yes, occasional venting is very cathartic sometimes. I do feel better thank you.</p>

<p>But given the record of utter failure of this administration and its utter failures in Iraq in particular, why should we conclude that the overarching “war on terror” will be anything but a failure too?</p>

<p>Any historian knows that given the sectarian animosities in Iraq, the only thing holding it together was the strong arm tactics of Saddam. For those opposed to Saddam the consequences were admittedly horrible. But for the common person on the street things were much better than they are today.</p>

<p>Because Iraq was run as a secular state we also know that OBL dispised Saddam, calling him an infidel on numerous occasions. Thus to think that Saddam had any linkage to 9-11 is rediculous.</p>

<p>The fact of the matter is that there is a low level “civil war” taking place between the Sunnis and Sheites. And in that conflict we know which side al Qaeda will support. And that support can come in many forms-money, arms, tactical support, etc. And do not underestimate the power of radical imams influenced by al Qaeda to keep the pot boiling.</p>

<p>And an even scarier prospect is the situation in Pakistan which has nuclear capabilities. OBL is probably holed up somewhere in the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan, an area where OBL has widespread support and where the central government has literally no control. The radical MMA is the ruling party in this area of Pakistan and threatens to destabilize the central govenment per the attached excerpt from the Brookings Institute.</p>

<p>“The Pakistan federal government needs to settle these issues with the MMA without any further delay. Any action to the contrary could cause instability beyond the province. There will most certainly be immediate repercussions in Balochistan where a breaking away of the MMA from the ruling coalition could pose serious difficulties for the PML-Q government. Islamabad should also realise that the MMA’s street power can be channelled to disrupt the normal life of citizens, which would result in further resentment against Islamabad.”</p>

<p>Should the MMA destabilize Pakistan and topple the government of Musharraf, nuclear weapons and the capability of delivering them to Kashmir or Israel would be in the hands of a radical Muslim group for the first time ever. And yes al Qaeda is very influential with the MMA leadership as they are in most of Afghanistan. No doubt this is one reason Dubya gave the green light to India’s nuclear weapons program. Whether this was wise or foolish remains to be seen.</p>

<p>So while we can debate the ebb and flow of al Qaeda in Iraq, there is little doubt that they are a destabilizing force throughout the region and a grave danger to friends throughout the region and Israel in particular.</p>

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<p>After losing a war and Saddam letting all the prisoners out of jail? I’m shocked. And to think that after all that polls still show Iraqis are optimistic about the future.</p>

<p>The Sunnis have no hope of “winning” a civil war, not when they’re only 20% of the population and are caught between the Shiites and the Kurds. They know that. Al Qaeda may have taken their side, but Al Qaeda, against all odds has managed to make themselves less popular than the US and the target of all sides in Iraq. Now if the traditional differences between Arabs and Persians would reassert themselves, the country would start to settle down.</p>

<p>What we’re seeing is more of the inevitable settling of scores that follows oppressive regimes breaking up. If a civil war breaks out, it’s not likely to be the kind that breaks the country up (other than the potential loss of the Kurdish north). What’s much more likely is for the Shiites to drive the Sunnis out of the country altogether. Like it or not, that was going to happen as soon as Saddam lost power whether we were the cause of it or not.</p>

<p>What Pakistan, nukes or not, has to do with this discussion is beyond me. Iran maybe, but Pakistan no. They have enough of their own to say grace over. A little distraction would be just the thing to give India, that other regional nuclear power, all the excuse they need to settle the Kashmir question once and for all.</p>

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<p>SO, if there is no civil war and the Iraqis are handling the situation, why our all the troops still there? If it is going so well, why are we spending billions monthly? If it is going so well, why the problems with getting electricity, water, etc.? If it is going so well, why are people still dying?</p>

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<p>By ALEXANDRA ZAVIS, Associated Press Writer
58 minutes ago</p>

<p><a href=“http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060309/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq[/url]”>http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060309/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>BAGHDAD, Iraq - Gunmen wearing commando uniforms of the Shiite-dominated Interior Ministry on Wednesday stormed an Iraqi security company that relied heavily on Sunni ex-military men from the Saddam regime, spiriting away 50 hostages. The ministry denied involvement and called the operation a “terrorist act.”
ADVERTISEMENT</p>

<p>Police and the U.S. military, meanwhile, reported finding the bodies of 24 men garroted or shot in the head, most of them in an abandoned bus in a tough Baghdad Sunni neighborhood.</p>

<p>They also reported the deaths of at least 13 others across Iraq, including a U.S. soldier and a Marine.</p>

<p>The Sunni minority, which was dominant in the country under Saddam Hussein, has complained bitterly that it is under attack from death squads associated with the Interior Ministry, in charge of Iraq’s police. And, over the past two weeks — since the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra — violence has become increasingly sectarian. Nearly 600 people have been killed since Feb. 22.</p>

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<p>Don’t forget to take a look at the story in tomorrow’s WaPo about SCIRI operatives in the Interior Ministry commanding the morgues not account/publicize assassination-style deaths.</p>

<p>I seriously doubt that the week after the destruction of the Samarra had 2,000 deaths. I also seriously doubt that there were only 200. </p>

<p>And remember, scaling for population, it’s the equivalent of ten times that number if it were happening in the USA. No one would be airy-fairy dismissive about it all.</p>

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<p>Like they say, truth is the first casualty of war.</p>

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<p>Sorry, it doesn’t work like that. Should every gang related death in Texas be counted 10 times because of the difference in population between Texas and the United States? Count the dead as they are and then leave them at peace. Unforunately for most reporters, you can’t do that from a suite in the Green Zone.</p>

<p>As to the Post article, was there any suggestion that an order came down to misrepresent the number of dead in the morgue? Without that, it’s not very relevant. Greybeard’s comment works both ways.</p>

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<p>And remember, we are still buying articles in the Iraq papers…if all was going so peachy, why would we have to pay for propoganda?</p>

<p>Too bad our reporters are in such danger, if this place was a calm as some claim, then we could get ALL the news</p>

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<p>You mean, like the way they slaughter it here?</p>

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<p>It is hard to say if Al Qaeda has overplayed its hand. A ragtag group of about 2 or 3 thousand has tied up the world’s greatest superpower, caused us to waste a trillion or two, dollars, caused our standing in the world to fall dratically, and created great divisiveness in our country. It seems that they have done a good job of promoting their screwed up goals.</p>

<p>I would say that it is relatively clear that Bush and the neocons have oveplayed their hands. As we see, Fu k u yama and many of the rest are jumping ship. I think in a few years the militarists, the conned, the cons and the neocons will be saying that it could have been a splendid little war in Iraq if Dubya was not so incompetent.</p>

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<p>It appears that a bold AP reporter may have taken Col. Peters’ advice and ventured beyond the Green Zone. What did he find? It appears that the “civil war” is more like a very robust Neighborhood Watch, working hand in hand with local authorities, to positive effect

Of course, people who don’t rely on the NYT, DailyKos, JuanCole, et al. for their news of Iraq have known about this sort of thing for some time now. Sorry to disappoint the BDS crowd.</p>

<p><a href=“http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060309/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_fighting_al_zarqawi[/url]”>http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060309/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_fighting_al_zarqawi&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;