Below are my guesses as to what your D’s chances for admissions might be at the schools on your current list:
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
- Elon
Likely (60-79%)
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Clark
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St. Olaf
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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American (if she shows a lot of demonstrated interest then this would probably more up to likely or extremely likely)
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Lafayette
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Lehigh
Lower Probability (20-39%)
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Denison
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Macalester
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Smith
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U. of Richmond
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William & Mary
Low Probability (less than 20%)
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Bates
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Colby
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Colgate
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Dartmouth
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Emory
It sounds as though you ran the NPC at Dartmouth and it came back as unaffordable. I would drop it and any other school that does not offer merit and whose NPC comes back as unaffordable. Schools on your list with no merit aid include Bates, Colby, and Colgate.
Your D may also want to read up on the Greek scene at Dartmouth, Lehigh, Denison, Colgate, and Lafayette. Different schools do Greek life differently, but I think it would be worth investigating at those schools.
If costs need to be under $50k then I would eliminate William & Mary. I think Macalester’s top merit aid award is about $25k, so that one may not necessarily be able to make budget either. I think that most likely the only ones that might hit that price range via merit aid are the ones in the likely/extremely likely category.
I suspect that your D will need to look at schools that are less rejective if she wants to receive substantial merit aid. Some other schools that she may want to consider include:
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
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Gustavus Adolphus (MN): About 2100 undergrads
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Loyola Chicago (IL): About 12k undergrads
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Miami U. (OH): About 17k undergrads
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Muhlenberg (PA ): About 1900 undergrads
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Saint Louis U. (MO): About 11k undergrads
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U. of St. Thomas (MN): About 5700 undergrads
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Wheaton (IL): About 2200 undergrads; religious affiliation is much more influential on college life than at most religiously-affiliated schools
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Wheaton (MA): About 2200 undergrads
Likely (60-79%)
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College of Wooster (OH): About 2k undergrads
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Fordham (NY): About 10k undergrads, likely admit
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Franklin & Marshall (PA ): About 2k undergrads
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Lake Forest (IL): About 1700 undergrads
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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Dickinson (PA ): About 2100 undergrads
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Oberlin (OH): About 3k undergrads
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Skidmore (NY): About 2800 undergrads
Lower Probability (20-39%)
Low Probability (less than 20%)