^ Well, I guess it really just depends then on what you perceive to be a balanced set of schools. In my daughter’s case, she was still in the top 25th percentile even for her Reach schools. But any college accepting 15% of less of its applicant pool must be deemed a high reach for anyone - regardless of stats. So the rejections that came from her 8 reach schools were not unexpected. But the rejections from 4 out of 5 of her solid match schools were surprising. In her case, applying to 8 reaches, 5 matches and 4 safeties seemed like a well-balanced approach. She applied to so many because she was really hoping for an acceptance from one of the reach schools.
That same year, 3 years ago, there was a post here on CC from a kid with a 4.0 unweighted GPA, 35 ACT and 2300+ SAT who was rejected everywhere accept for his in-state safety. So my point is… it can happen. And it is simply better to be safe than sorry.
Again… the best strategy may be an early admit to a school you would not mind going to… as that would remove a lot of the stress from this process.
Good luck…