I’m reminded of a situation where a prestigious college thought they had a pipeline into a country with a stronger soccer tradition and expected at least a couple recruits. However, the pioneering player/student didn’t like his time at college for whatever reason (the level of soccer was rubbish - kidding!) and that caused his brethren to reconsider. That left the coach scrambling a little late in cycle and he had to pick up some HS senior players he (and other coaches) had passed over. Worked out for that player but sometimes the late bird gets the worm? (This is all hearsay, though I have reason to believe the gist of the anecdote.)
The cold hard “truth” is that if a player has desirable traits, schools will move heaven and earth to get him/her. Then everyone else has to wait for the dust to settle and it’s a scramble all around. Sports in general is littered with examples of players being overlooked and discarded only to prove later on to be stellar. It’s tough for a teenager to take, but as parents we have to rinse and repeat that message (as much as it pains us to watch.).