15 APs (implied: strong MD HS) with a 3.87 UW and 10+ 4s&5s, yes I can be that certain for admission to UMD English and pretty certain for either Honors or Scholars.
However having options is important; also, large universities with large STEM contingents might not be the best places for what OP wants, barring Honors/Scholars.
So, if OP doesn’t get into Honors/Scholars and/or needs a solid 2nd option, what college straddles preprofessional and English + club fencing with enough merit aid?
UMBC and Towson wouldn’t work as well for English as UMDCP, for instance - the subject rests heavily on peer quality (discussions, feedback). They’d be financial and admission safeties but may not work too well academically and professionally. Self motivated peers may be easier to find at St Mary’s but the environment isn’t what OP wants nor is the focus. All three are okay safeties but there may be a private college with sufficient merit scholarships that could work better for what OP wants while being a safety - Ursinus? Wheaton MA? Miami Ohio?
Op deserves to have choices 
Knowing whether 30k is a want or a need (aka absolute necessity) matters, too.
American University may be a target if OP shows a lot of interest. Financially, a full merit scholarship would make the college a reach.
Would have academic environment OP wants (+1/week dedicated to externships or placements).
https://www.american.edu/cas/literature/wsp/index.cfm
https://www.american.edu/cas/literature/wsp/writing-rhetoric.cfm
+Of course topnotch political science.