I noted a couple others that would hit $30K. As you know $30K is a tough # to hit - but I mentioned a lot of nearby schools. It was just a like school that’s assured to hit - similar to KU which is likely (not assured) to hit $30K.
It just comes down to you and @MYOS1634 are putting UMD in the safety column and I’m more in the target or even slight reach camp…..that’s the difference. I personally would apply TO or at least talk to my counselor about that given they are below the 25th percentile, regardless of major. Of course, the OP said they’ll take again and maybe that will help.
At least Poli Sci is no longer a limited enrollment program at UMD. It was until a few years ago.
I hope, for the student’s sake, you and @MYOS1634 are right. But if the student finds a 2nd $30K school (I’d look at Salisbury too), then they’ll be in good shape regardless.
Or, of course, if the budget increases, then more options open, including maybe even Delaware, which could be a great sub for UMD. Or a bit further away, but feels like an LAC, Miami Ohio. Both have sizable Jewish populations. And both UD and Miami would be admission safeties (even in my over conservative view 
).