My son had a ~3.9 GPA (UW) and took several AP classes throughout high school. He applied test optional. Also, he was school VP, involved in 4 clubs, community service, and a part time job.
He applied for TE for 2 schools you listed (Gannon & Xavier). He was awarded TE at Xavier (showed demonstrated interest) , but was denied at Gannon (showed zero demonstrated interest).
I definitely think there is something to that (demonstrated interest) ā¦ for Xavier, did he do an in-campus visit and open emails or anything beyond this?
An in person visit is great! My son also stayed in contact with his admissions counselor and expressed his interest. You never know, but an admission counselor could recommend or put in a word for your student!
I was the original creator of the admit/reject spreadsheet back in 2023, so Iāve tracked mountains of data on this for a few years. All in all, though, the best quick filters I used (to decide whether to apply) in 2023 (and will again in 2027 when my D27 applies) are: (1) must have an ACT/SAT in the 75% percentile and (2) GPA should be at or above the average freshman admit. If you have both, it makes total sense to apply. If you have (2) but not (1), then personally I wouldnāt bother unless youāre right at the high end of the 50% score range. If you have (1) but not (2), who knows - itās a crap shoot, it depends on how much the school cares about standardized tests. Sometimes schools are forgiving of a lower GPA when they see a 35 or a 36 ACT. I also tend to focus on how many TE they hand out. There are places that get 200 apps and then give 5 kids TE (or less!). In that case, unless the (1) and (2) are really strong, it seems like energy would be better spent elsewhere on other apps. It also matters where the school is. A school in Boston or NYC will be extremely competitive. A school in Missouri with the same overall stats will be less so, even if they hand out the same # of TE in the end. Generally, really good schools in rural areas are also solid bets. Also: demonstrated interest at some schools is a real plus. If itās possible to do a visit at a school you apply to, do it.
What people really need is data (from schools) on # of apps/# accepts. TE presently has no information at all on this on the website. They do have info on ānumber accepted/number enrolledā but that only of limited value. The real number we need in addition is #applied. That would provide a better shot of competitiveness. I think most people, seeing a 2% chance at school X, are not going to waste the time doing the app there unless their kid has top of the line scoring. Parents/students need good info from TE on this so that they can make informed decisions and spend time/money/energy wisely, and not waste their time or the time of people in admissions offices. Of course, it would also be great to have info on what the ACT/GPAs were for admits at each school, but I guess thatās asking too much - and to be honest thatās why I made the spreadsheet, so that year by year people could at least add their own data and slowly people would have a general idea of the admissions pictures at various schools.
I did email TE a few months ago and they said they planned on providing exactly the info I just mentioned - this coming year. Weāll see. I plan to email them again about it, because Iād like to have that info available for when my D27 applies.
Excel_Dad, I appreciate all of the efforts youāve gone through with getting these spreadsheets together, and itās been helpful in putting together a small handful of schools for which TE awards seem plausible 
Iām finding with schoolsā cost estimators, that better bets for us than TE include: schools with healthy endowments that award a lot of institutional need-based aid and that also award a lot of merit scholarships, (obviously, our home institution), as well as some publics that are in-state or/and very transparent with what merit discounts are awarded at particular SAT and GPA levelsā¦ My daughter will be applying for TE, but definitely not counting on it. I also wonder if the merit + institutional grants might be a better deal at some institutions than TE or CIC.
From the handful of people administering TE that I have contacted at various schools, far more schools are in the <10% range than the 11-40% labels [and higher] reveal, (and the <10% range schools seem more like <3% range schools). For people who have a teen who has a 4.4+ GPA, 1500+ SAT, who loves small schools in small towns, then TE may be a different story.
On this page, there is a link to schools that still had Tuition Exchange seats available after May 1. Although itās not a guarantee that your kid would get TE, it does seem a promising lead:
These are some of the schools from that list that I think could be of interest, based on what youāve shared. Iāve included their Colleges That Change Lives link, if available, as I think the profiles give a good sense of the ethos at various schools, though it is, admittedly, marketing material.
Agnes Scott: Small womenās college, but in a great walkable area of Atlanta. Agnes Scott College ā Colleges That Change Lives
Allegheny (PA ): It has a cute little downtown area, but this is not a big city. But since your list has places like Susquehanna and Bucknell on it, that doesnāt seem to be a must-have. Allegheny College ā Colleges That Change Lives
Bellarmine (KY): Smaller school, but Louisvilleās definitely a city
Beloit (WI): Smaller school, but the town of Beloit is about 2.5x bigger than Meadville. Beloit College ā Colleges That Change Lives
Drew (NJ): Smaller school in a cute town and about a 50-minute ride on public transportation into NYC
Goucher (MD): Smaller school, but itās in Baltimore and also part of a consortium that allows students to take classes at Johns Hopkins, Loyola Maryland, and other schools. Goucher College ā Colleges That Change Lives
Hamline (MN): Smaller school in Saint Paul in the Twin Cities
Lawrence (WI): Smaller school in a small city. Lawrence University ā Colleges That Change Lives
Merrimack (MA): A medium-sized school with about 4200 undergrads thatās about a 35m drive (in current conditions) from downtown Boston, per Google Maps.
Roanoke (VA): A smaller college in the metro of the same name.
The College of Wooster (OH): A smaller college thatās 1h9m from Cleveland. College of Wooster ā Colleges That Change Lives
U. of Lynchburg (VA): Another smaller school but itās in a definite town. University of Lynchburg ā Colleges That Change Lives
Wheaton (MA): A smaller school, but I think it has a lot of options for either spending a semester or more in Boston and also for other study abroad options as a very regular component of the experience.
Widener (PA ): About 2800 undergrads at this school that is a half hour (driving or via public transportation) to downtown Philly (per Google Maps in current conditions).
York (PA ): Closer to medium-sized with about 3300 undergrads at this school in the city reflecting its name
Of the schools I just mentioned that had TE spots after May 1, these are the classifications on the type of TE award they offer:
Full Tuition
Set Rate
Other Tuition
Unknown (did not specify on TE website)
if it is a helpful data point, when my D20 was applying, Goucher awarded set rate.