You have lots of flaws in your assumptions. Your whole premise is based on a false dichotomy.
There is absolutely no guarantee that you’ll have a higher GPA at your state school than you would if you attended an Ivy or or other top school. Just a few reasons to start with—
–there is grade inflation at many Ivies (lots of As and Bs) with higher average GPAs than elsewhere
–at state universities, the best & brightest tend to cluster into a few, mostly STEM, majors so your competition may be just as strong as it will be at a more brand-name school
– the state U always a have few very, very bright kids who cannot afford to attend a private U or cannot go due to other family circumstances. (True story: D1 had a classmate at her mid-ranked state U who was publishing astrophysics papers with Kip Thorne of CalTech as a college sophomore–now imagine that kid setting the curves in your classes.)
There are some threads over in the pre-med forum that have terrific advice for picking an undergrad:
Read those first.
Pick an undergrad because it offers you best combination of cost, fit and opportunity. Don’t pick it because you assume it’ll be “easier.” It may not be.
RE: BA/MD programs-- do you have the AP classes, GPA, SAT scores and clinical/research experiences needed to apply to those programs?
You may want to read the Multiple Degree forum here to see what's typical of those getting acceptances there.
<a href="http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/multiple-degree-programs/">http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/multiple-degree-programs/</a>