History of National Tours

College Majors Musical Theater Majors
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<p>The way this is stated (not sure if it is what you meant)…I can’t agree with. Sure, more than 90% won’t be admitted to a PARTICULAR BFA program (most acceptance rates to a BFA in MT program are in the single digits). BUT, more than 10% of the entire BFA in MT applicant pool to all BFA programs, will be admitted to at least one program (some will be admitted to none, of course). I just don’t want this year’s applicants to think they have a 1 in 10 chance overall to go to ANY BFA program. That may be their chance at a single program, but are not their overall chances (though their overall chances differ depending on their qualifications/audition, etc.). </p>

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<p>Not sure I can agree on this statement either. Lots of non-Equity people get jobs as performers, and there are lots and lots of non-Equity jobs to be gotten. Some of these are not the best jobs, places to work, pay, etc. and some are quite good. Surely, there are benefits to becoming Equity. It allows you to attend Equity open calls. And there are better paying gigs (overall, but not every single one) and other benefits. A non-Equity actor can audition for Equity shows via agent submissions too. Just stating this for those new to the field. My kid is Equity and never attends non-Equity or Equity open calls and only goes to auditions via agent submissions, and could do that whether she was Equity or non-Equity. </p>

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<p>Thanks for that feedback. @soozievt Do we have numbers for the entire applicant pool and the total first year seats? Could a percentage be calculated? I’d be really curious to know what the overall chances are.</p>

<p>Yes, I should have said “The people who get the EQUITY jobs are the people who get their cards, plain and simple.” The statement was in response to the idea that there’s something tricky or surprisingly difficult about the process of joining. There is a wide variety of experiences of getting to that first Equity job but there’s nothing hidden or mysterious. That’s part of why I love reading those stories. No individual’s tale predicts the narrative for another aspirant.</p>

<p>There are absolutely no guarantees that talent, hard work, persistence etc will get you where you want to be. What you can be sure of is that a lack of these will undo you. I particularly appreciate Rául Esparza’s story because it’s one in which the actor sees his own intrinsic worth and insists that he will only work for those who share his evaluation of himself. That thread of an employer telling a young person “You won’t work if you insist on a union contract.” is a very familiar thread to many. It’s a thinly veiled threat, when you get right down to it. Too many starting out allow themselves to be bullied in this way. Esparza refused to back down. He believed he was qualified to work professionally and he was right. (Yes, I do see union membership as a significant mark of professionalism.)</p>

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I agree with @soozievt’s point, but think there’s an important point to be made on the flip side. The mere fact that someone is admitted to a BFA program (including the tippy top programs) does not guarantee that they will have a successful performing career. I think too many people think that getting admitted to an auditioned BFA, or even getting an Equity card, is some magical gateway to steady work, and there is much evidence to suggest that just isn’t the case.</p>

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In my experience the going rate for non-Equity contracts in Equity theatres is far higher than this (higher than many SETA tours) but your mileage may vary. Though I do know of child-actors at Equity theatres in our local market who are paid a pittance in the form of a stipend, which strikes me as unfair.</p>

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As I’ve said, I know cases where cards have prevented people from getting work, while with strong agent submissions it seems non-Equity folks can be seen for most anything. But perhaps this only applies to younger actors or particular markets. I am very new to most of this.</p>

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<p>$50 is Rául Esparza talking about when he was starting out post-Tisch. He’s 44 now so that is a story that is maybe 20 years old - not likely to reflect any of today’s salaries. BTW, if you don’t know his work, do yourself a favor and spend some time on youtube. Maybe start with “Being Alive”. He is stunning.</p>

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<p>@vocal1046 - regarding the odds of acceptance:</p>

<p>A while back I ran some numbers to see what this might look like, refer to this post:</p>

<p><a href=“Class mix thread? - #48 by EmsDad - Musical Theater Major - College Confidential Forums”>Class mix thread? - #48 by EmsDad - Musical Theater Major - College Confidential Forums;

<p>And then back up to post #33 in the same thread.</p>

<p>I estimated that there are about 784 slots in the 56 programs at the top of this thread and maybe something like 3,000-3,500 applicants in the pool.</p>

<p>Using estimates of 750-800 for the number of slots and 3,000-3,500 for the pool, you get overall odds of admittance in the neighborhood of 20-25% (rounding down a little to get nice numbers instead of 21%-26%). Of course, it is worse for girls than boys, etc., etc. And, fundamentally, this has more than a whiff of WAG about it.</p>

<p>Also, there are far more programs than just the 56 at the top of this forum, so the odds of getting admitted somewhere if you cast your net wide and/or accurately are probably much higher, although the pool would grow as well.</p>

<p>For some more fun with this topic, check out this thread:</p>

<p><a href=“How many programs should you audition for? A "Freakonomics" approach - Musical Theater Major - College Confidential Forums”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1243010-how-many-programs-should-you-audition-for-a-freakonomics-approach-p1.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>WAG? I love that probability thread! It’s great that you have the math skills to move past pure conjecture toward some semblance of logical conclusion (however tenuous). Now I understand why the more senior members of the group want those baroque lists with more data about number of applicants overall, number of applications per applicant, number who pass any prescreen, and number who gain admission. At a certain point I feel overwhelmed by data and it becomes more difficult to see the forest because of all those dang trees. For someone with your mindset (and I’m speaking to a few of you) the more detailed view is plausibly more enlightening than obfuscating. </p>

<p>The most confounding variable would seem to be that the sample set is made up entirely of people who are, by most standards, far more invested in this process than most. CC posters are definitely a subset of parents that demonstrates patterns of behavior (and therefore outcomes) that lie far out side any bell curve.</p>

<p>I do think that this is one of the rare instances in which Naviance can be really useful to students/parents. If your kid attends a performing arts high school that admits only by audition, then the assembled data about recent grads’ success in the application wars can be more relevant than it is for a kid attending a more conventional school. I like scattergrams…I like them a lot…</p>

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<p>WAG = “wild-a$$ guess”</p>

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<p>Has anyone ever heard how many kids attend Unifieds each year?</p>

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<p>John Stefano (doctorjohn on CC), head of Otterbein’s program, once did a calculation of total applicants to BFA inMT programs to try to show that the odds of being admitted overall (not to any one particular program) are not as long as some might think. He posted it on CC. I don’t have the time to find it. Can anyone find that post? It was good, even if it was a few years ago. </p>

<p>Speaking personally now, when my kid applied to college, and she applied to a total of 8 BFA in MT programs, it was nerve wracking, yes, due to the odds. But I felt pretty sure she’d get into at least one program, even though I could not predict the outcome at any one particular school. And she did (and more than that). I have rarely known applicants who were totally shut out. Most cases I know of that circumstance are either due to not having the right college list (for them) or a balanced list, or not really being competitive on the talent front (getting an assessment as to whether one is in the ballpark for a BFA program is a good thing to get from those in the field). </p>

<p>EDIT…oops, other posts went up before my post and my post is addressing the conversation about total applicants to all the BFA in MT programs and not the post about Unifieds. :slight_smile: </p>

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<p>I have never heard actual numbers-that would be interesting to know- but it seems like Sunday night through Tuesday are packed with people and by Wednesday morning it really slows down. 2 cycles back it was a ghost town by Wednesday early afternoon-even though some auditions were still taking place that afternoon and Thursday morning.</p>

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<p>I think this is what @soozievt mentioned above…

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<p>Some notes on Dr. John’s post:</p>

<ol>
<li><p>For the schools at the top of the forum, the number of slots per school averages out to more like 14-15.</p></li>
<li><p>The pool of auditioners has grown in size through the years. CCM, CMU and Tisch now mention numbers much higher than those quoted. As an anecdote, we have seen our regional auditions grow by more than 50% in the past three years. For the first time ever, we had to turn away students because we had no more room this year, and we filled up fairly early.</p></li>
<li><p>The good news is the total number of programs has grown.</p></li>
</ol>

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<p>Did anyone see this NYTimes article about numbers of applicants? Good heavens…86 was the record!
<a href=“Applications by the Dozen, as Anxious Seniors Hedge College Bets - The New York Times”>http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/16/nyregion/applications-by-the-dozen-as-anxious-students-hedge-college-bets.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>Guess it’s time to start building more theaters. Or perhaps installing stage lights, sound systems and dance floors in our garages. Investing in folding chairs and port-a-potties. Kind of a step down from the facilities our BFA kids will be used to. Is it possible to be “red-shirted” in a BFA program? (I think that’s what it’s called - not much for sports at our house, but we do know our tights and dance shoe suppliers on a first name basis.)</p>

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The less good news is that number of Equity weeks worked hasn’t increased in many years, and I think AEA employment rate is holding at around 13%. :(</p>

<p>Last time I checked, the number of Equity tours (and obviously the average pay scale for those tours) has been falling over the past 10 years, but I’ll check those figures sometime.</p>

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<p>Yes, I’m not sure that the increase in the number of programs is a good thing. Employment numbers have not grown and I doubt that that will change anytime soon.</p>

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<p>Well, that’s what I get for trying to sound upbeat on at least one point (smile).</p>

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<p>I have been collecting Playbills/Programs from shows for over 30 years, starting when I was a teen in Chicago and looking them over the mix of success paths has not really changed and frankly it doesn’t matter if its Chicago, NY, Seattle, LA, a national tour…etc. There are always BFA, non BFA, AMDA, and no college paths represented in roughly the same amounts. The numbers of kids going to college is up overall, this is reflected in the BFA numbers and the programs that serve the demand. I am sure there has been an equal growth in STEM programs. </p>

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<p>@Notmath1 - Can you imagine applying to 86 schools? Or to 50 music conservatories? Ouch!!</p>

<p>@EmsDad - Haha… every MT knows that no good deed goes unpunished. But seriously - today I should have changed my cc name to DebbieDowner. </p>

<p>@evilqueen - I just read that the earth’s population has doubled in the last 50 years, so it makes sense that more people are enrolling in all manner of colleges. And hey - shouldn’t that also mean the world needs twice as many national tours… and twice as many actors? ;)</p>

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@mom4bwayboy - I know so little about sports that I still don’t understand what redshirting is even after googling it. ;)</p>