Home prices rising in 100 cities

Parent Cafe
21

<p>Barron’s original post said

.</p>

<p>Let’s look below the headline at the actual data. First, the aggregate:</p>

<p>U.S. -1.2%
Northeast -4.8%
Midwest -2.6%
South -0.1%
West -0.9%</p>

<p>Puzzled? It’s because most of the gainers were small markets. So comparing Salem, OR, the biggest gainer, up 24.7%, does not make up for Detriot, the biggest loser, at - 10.5%</p>

<p>Now, let’s look at the losers. Here’s the list:<br>
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI, Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL, Canton-Massillon, OH, Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL, Bloomington-Normal, IL
Akron, OH, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, Toledo, OH, Lansing-E.Lansing, MI, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL, Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA, South Bend-Mishawaka, IN, Indianapolis, IN, Ft. Wayne, IN, Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA, Erie, PA, Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH**, Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH, Appleton, WI, Worcester, MA, Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville, CA, Columbus, OH, Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL, Grand Rapids, MI, Barnstable Town, MA, Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN, Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, Green Bay, WI, San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA, Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME, Pittsburgh, PA, Charleston, WV, Des Moines, IA, Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL, Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA (Orange Co.), Gary-Hammond, IN, Kansas City, MO-KS, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ, Lexington-Fayette,KY, Lincoln, NE, Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI, Chattanooga, TN-GA, Denver-Aurora, CO, Memphis, TN-MS-AR</p>

<p>I’ll spare you the winners list, except for the top few. Here are the markets that did better than 10%:<br>
Binghamton, NY, Dover, DE, Albuquerque, NM, Cumberland, MD-WV, Atlantic City, NJ, Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA, Eugene-Springfield, OR, Durham, NC, Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX, Farmington, NM, Baton Rouge, LA, Spokane, WA, El Paso, TX, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA, Wichita, KS, Gulfport-Biloxi, MS, Gainesville, FL, Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC, Salt Lake City, UT, Elmira, NY, Salem, OR.</p>

<p>Short list compared to past years. Note too that only one of these markets had an average price over $300,000, Seattle.</p>

<p>It is easy to have good price rise when you start small, like our runner up highest gainer in percent, Elmira, NY. They went from $77.10K $93.60K (no, I did not miss a number there!) That’s a 21.4% gain, but not much in dollars.</p>

22

<p>Doesn’t matter we still need to sell. My wife retired October 31, and will be joining me as soon as the house is prepared for sale. Two plus years apart is quite enough.</p>

23

<p>Detroit is a victim of the car market–not the housing market.</p>

<p>I have always said there would be a modest correction this year and that is what we are seeing overall. If you take out a few of the worst markets like Detroit which has structural problems beyond RE, even the overall average would not show much loss if any. The fact that twice as many cities are up than down indicates local factors matter more than the overall direction that was projected by so many economists. I had highlighted Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona are potential weak markets due to excessive new construction and too much investor buying.</p>

24

<p>

</p>

<p>NO, NO, NO.</p>

<p>The fact that more were up by region count just means there are a lot of regions that don’t have many people living there. This data appears to be based on Dept. of Commerce defined metro areas. When there’s a big contiguous city, like Boston or LA, many many places get summed in. These “counting units” are huge. And these huge places, both in geography and population, are where the losers are. If you look at the winners, they are mostly small markets, both geographically and population. </p>

<p>And sure, I can take out the losers who have structural problems to get a better average. I can also take out the winners who have structural advantages and lower the average.</p>

<p>The fact is there is not one broad region in the US that had a rise as a region, not even the south or west. The data speaks for itself if one does not engage in fallacious counting exercises.</p>

25

<p>Facts, schmacts.</p>

26

<p>The Northwest is a broad area and had an increase. The Southeast excluding Florida had an increase. Texas had an increase. LA and SF had increases. Those are broad areas IMHO. The fact is the losses are concentrated in relatively few markets in the Northeast, Michigan, DC, Florida and Arizona. Are there lots of homes there, sure. But it is not the world either.</p>

27

<p>That’s funny… the only thing that the California Association of Realtors and unaffiliated economists disagree about regarding Northern California real estate is how far it will drop and for how long:

</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/11/21/BUG5UMGNVT1.DTL&hw=real+estate&sn=001&sc=1000[/url]”>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/11/21/BUG5UMGNVT1.DTL&hw=real+estate&sn=001&sc=1000&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

28

<p>A 4.8% loss would just excced by 1% the 3.8% gain SF had in the last year. My tears are not flowing. Economists have been confounded trying to apply their affordability model to behavior over the last 20 years. But I don’t see 20% growth anytime soon either. That was unique.</p>

<p>Most people don’t pick up and move to las Vegas etc until they retire.</p>

<p>Uh Oh–thunderstorms in Seattle. Get the ark out again.</p>

<p>Perhaps a confounding variable</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/11/21/D8LHJSQO0.html[/url]”>http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/11/21/D8LHJSQO0.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

29

<p>Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville, CA down 3.5%</p>

<p>San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 0.0%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA +3.8%</p>

<p>So, to say SF had an increase and “is a broad area” is another misleading statement. SF was up. The adjoining areas, Sacramento and San Jose, were down. The up world just became smaller.</p>

<p>Looking at So Cal,
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA -2.1%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA +5.2%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA +5.8%
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA (Orange Co.) -0.8%</p>

<p>Same story, a few parts did OK (but personally, I think a 5% increase means folks lost big…), some did poorly.</p>

<p>The news here is that not every place is down. OK.</p>

30

<p>I might phrase it a little differently but OK. The take away is that the forecast hurricane looks more like the thunderstorm that just passed through town here. Yes some people are getting wet but in other areas the sun is still out.</p>