The “demographic cliff” for colleges represents an enrollment decline that K-12 systems have been experiencing (and are likely to continue experiencing). That said, the hiring challenges are not going to be the same everywhere, even if locations are experiencing similar enrollment declines.
I am familiar with areas where they are closing and consolidating schools. Yes, this will likely result in a reduction in the number of teaching positions. That said, I have heard on more than one occasion that the reduction will be of the “warm bodies” that schools were forced to hire because they couldn’t find anybody else, not the people who are either certified teachers or who are actually interested in teaching as a profession.
So for school districts that were always very in-demand with a greater supply of applicants than teaching positions (and even if it wasn’t always 50:1, it was always an employer’s market), there might be some job cuts. But at less highly-sought-after districts, I don’t anticipate problems for dedicated individuals who want a teaching job.
Additionally, the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) indicates there are approximately 240,000 K-12 teacher openings per year. It’s not a growing field in terms of new positions opening up, but there’s a fair bit of attrition in terms of people retiring or deciding that the classroom is not for them. And though the OOH doesn’t foresee growth with special education teachers, my personal experience disagrees, as the number of students with disabilities identified has been steadily increasing over the years.
I’m not sure this is the case across the country. Take a look at NYC’s infamous holding pens where teachers who have been removed from the classroom but can’t be fired are happily collecting their paychecks while spending the day chatting with colleagues and scrolling on their phones. Take a look at school systems where some of the 'warm bodies" are 60 years old, should have retired years ago because they were terrible teachers who hated kids, but now can’t be removed without triggering a huge union fight.
Etc. Pregnant teachers, teachers undergoing treatment for substance abuse.. there are a lot of teachers who won’t get fired (risk is too great) who are sitting at a desk that a better trained/more committed teacher could be sitting in.
This is what will sustain the job market in teaching. I’m not sure what “warm bodies” you’re referring to above in your post – schools have always had a surplus of applicants for any position. But teaching has always seen a lot of turnover, and now far more people are ending their careers early, with far fewer entering the profession (likely due in part to the stressors on public education from all directions), and I’m hoping that these factors will still make it possible for people who want to teach to do so.
In the areas with which I am most familiar, there has not always been a surplus of applicants for any position. Thus, the “warm bodies” comment.
Though unions offer many benefits, the situation you described is not one of them. Most of the districts in my state do not have collective bargaining agreements with unions, and it’s a right-to-work state. But even so, that’s one of the benefits of school closures. The school is closing so all those positions are being eliminated. And in a district where there’s a lot of school autonomy, that means that the closing school’s strong teachers will be hired by continuing schools because most of the teachers in our district are on one-year contracts, so the schools can let go of the people whose actions show they should not be in the classroom and replace them with the strong teachers from closing schools.
So this is a situation in which districts that were less popular with applicants have a strengthened position, which means that they can be more selective in their hiring, when previously they were unable to be so.
And yes, this means that the localized context can impact the outlook for educators.
What state are you referring to? That certainly isn’t the case in California.
In California, some positions are temporary (ex. 1 year) or probationary. Temp positions are given pink slips every February. If enough students enroll for the following year, and the school/district wants them back, they are rehired. Probationary teachers are on track to becoming permanent. They don’t automatically receive pink slips but could be let go if numbers are down. It is very difficult to let a tenured or permanent teacher go.
Exactly, this is our experience as a California resident with a California teacher kid.
Districts are managing by not rehiring probationary teachers as well as offering early retirement packages to seasoned teachers.
Also, it is not necessarily the case in our area that higher income areas offer higher pay for the teachers. Not that this matters to my daughter who applied to around 8 districts within a 30 mile radius. Still very very few openings.
On a happy note, as I mentioned above in the thread, she landed a long term sub position and just finished her first week of work. She is over the moon excited about the school, staff and students. Absolutely thriving.
And at the end of her first week the principal suggested she stay on for another teacher who leaves on maternity leave in January. So she will be there through the end of the year. And she has a great principal not only mentoring her, but I am sure looking for a way to keep her employed in the district.
As we have told all of our kids, be great at what you do, put yourself out there, be a great person that others want to work with. Doors will open.