Some misinformation in this thread…First, Duke does indeed offer merit academic (and athletic of course) scholarships, but the academic ones are VERY limited in nature. Some are geared towards service or certain groups (low income, URM). I agree that you can’t bank on getting one and there is a component of luck, but it’s really more than stats. The stats need to be near perfect and THEN you have to show you’ve been passionate about something and made a big impact outside the classroom in some manner. Also, one can’t say a 4.12 GPA Weighted doesn’t “put [the applicant] in the top 10%” of applicants given we don’t know the weighting scale of the high school. Every school does it differently. With a 4.0 UW GPA clearly the applicant has been perfect. Hard to judge the course difficulty and challenges presented without seeing all that information.
Overall, though, I agree that if you come from a family of means but they don’t want to contribute, you’ll likely have to broaden your search and not expect getting a full-ride to a Top 20 ranked academic institution. But in applications, showing things beyond academics is what a school like Duke looks for. Schools with perhaps lower prestige (which still may be great fits) will likely weigh flawless academic credentials more and incentivize those types of students to attend. Good luck.