I’ve tried to get well informed about college affordability, and found that elite colleges are definitely affordable for first year students of modest means. BUT these same elite colleges could be much more expensive, and be unaffordable for transfer students. (I’m not certain about specific colleges, since their Net Price Calculator gives numbers for first year students, not transfer students.) Based on this, our oldest S24, is applying to many elite colleges, since getting in is a huge win-win (great college, affordable price), realizing that chances are low, but also realizing that if one doesn’t get in at the beginning then there’s no chance later, as the transfer option is unaffordable, and so the only chance is to get in at the beginning and stay there until graduation.
I could be wrong, but based on what I’ve found, I’ve dismissed transferring as a way to get to an affordable elite college, it’s first year or never.