Copying my response from a different thread, but I think it gets at what you’re asking for. When chancing people, I start with the school’s admission rate and then…
Based on how a student’s stats compare to the school’s stats I might move a school up or down a category (occasionally up/down 2 categories, but rarely), but the basic chance of getting into a school I base on the overall acceptance rate.
(By the way, when I mean categories, I generally will group schools into these categories:
Extremely Likely: 80-99+%
Likely: 60-79%
Toss-Up: 40-59%
Lower Probability: 20-39%
Low Probability: less than 20%
Then I’ll look at what percentage of students submitted a test to the school. If it’s a high percentage and the student is going TO, then it definitely drops the kid’s odds at least one category (and potentially more). If it’s a low percentage of people who submit the test, then I would look at the Common Data Set for GPA breakdowns. If a school is 99+% at 4.0, then I know they’ve used weighted scores and it’s not overly helpful. But if there’s a more typical grade breakdown, then I’d compare the student’s GPA to what is found there. If it’s among the higher GPAs, then I’d keep the kid in the original category or move the kid’s chances up one category. If the reverse, then the kid’s chances would drop.
Obviously, none of this is an exact science, but it’s a way to tackle the issue of not having high school history of admissions, test scores, AP scores, etc.
Additionally, if an overall acceptance rate is below 20%, a school stays categorized as low probability.
And for clarity, if a student is submitting a test, then if they’re above the 75th percentile then I’ll generally move them up a category or below the 25th percentile move them down a category, but only if there’s a significant number of students submitting a test score.
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