<p>On the one hand, we have some anecdotes from one CC poster (b@r!um), and some advice I shared from the Swarthmore site, suggesting that math grads at top LACs may have a hard time getting into an ill-defined group of “top” grad schools for pure math. On the other hand, we have years of statistics showing that LAC alumni have relatively high PhD production rates in many fields, including math. </p>
<p>As I stated above, even in absolute numbers, Carleton College is producing more alumni with math/stat doctorates than Duke, UNC, Penn, Northwestern, NYU, or Johns Hopkins. Do we know for a fact that math alumni from these universities are getting into “top” math programs at higher rates than alumni from Carleton, Swarthmore, Reed, or Oberlin? It may be the case that only a very small number of undergraduate programs are dominant feeders into the most prestigious graduate schools for mathematics. If so, is one of those programs a likely option for the OP? If not, would he be content with a less-than-top graduate school? Or, would he be content to forgo a career in academia for a higher-paying career in IT or finance? The latter seem to be sucking up lots of math grads these days, including grads from small liberal arts colleges. If in doubt, contact the math departments for information about career outcomes.</p>