<p>The figure for Chicago in your link is consistent with my observation in #8 above.</p>
<p>I don’t think Chicago’s “taking a chance” on students with lower grades and good essays explains anything, however. To demonstrate that, you’d have to show the relationship between high school grades and college grades, demonstrate that Chicago is different from most other schools, and convince us that any such difference has to do with the role of the essays in the admission process.</p>
<p>I agree with you, however, that grades predict grades (better than test scores predict grades, for example), and I’d conjecture that the more intensive academic programs in college may not be to the taste of some students who enroll in them. This may or may not have to do with their basic ability; but it definitely may relate to their willingness to focus on academics.</p>