How likely is it I'll be able to transfer from a CSU to a CSU or a UC?

Try the best you can. For UCSD Bio, I’d say 3.7+ would make you competitive. You could possibly get in with less than that, but it’s better to be safe than sorry - the closer to a 4.0 the better. The other schools I cannot really answer for, although I assume the 3.0-3.3 range should land you some acceptances.

Edit: USC (Santa Clara) has limited space in Bio - probably a 3.5-3.7 GPA to really be considered. USF seems easier to get into, it has a high acceptance rate for transfers as well. CSU’s are fairly easy to get accepted to, just make sure you fulfill the requirements needed.