How likely is it I'll be able to transfer from a CSU to a CSU or a UC?

[ItsJustSchool]

http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/transfer/index.html

We give California community college students first priority over other transfer applicants

From UC’s perspective, community college is where you lay the groundwork for your bachelor’s degree.

You can transfer in to UC from anywhere. However, it would be a disservice to you NOT to mention the community college option for your exploration. As always, use College Confidential for ideas and opinions, then do your own research.