No…you have to wonder how many applications were because someone thought more was better in terms of applying to top 20 schools. Like if they applied to them all, it would increase their odds of getting accepted…
It may be helpful to look at the stats for the competitive schools to get an indication of how many students are not qualified on the basis of their scores. This does not tell you which applications they worked hardest on but, for a school like MIT, most students who score in the upper %iles on tests aren’t slapping applications together . What else will you say a about schools you were rejected from if you want to project an image of confidence “I was rejected from X school despite submitting an excellent application” or " I was rejected form X school because I didn’t care about it and didn’t spend time on the application".
When you talk to high achieving students after they bomb tests, which are you likely to hear:
a. I failed the test despite spending a lot of time studying.
b. I failed the test because I did not study for it.
“You guys think the remaining 80% all submit super detailed, college-specific supplements for EACH college? That’s what I’m getting at. I just don’t see THAT many applicants putting in hours on hours researching each and every college they apply to, and make custom essays. It wouldn’t take an adcom more than 1 minute to realize essays are recycled and only have surface level, if that, details about the school – which indicate the app was a “why not?” and not a I’m incredibly passionate about this specific elite college.”
The issue is whether the rejections stem from not caring or spending time on them compared to those that yielded success. I am sure many applications that are not super detailed and that don’t address the specific school result in acceptances. Except for those wealthy students who hire consultants, the applications tend to be completed by 16 or 17 year old people who are balancing applying with other tasks, like being a student. I am sure most essays are recycled. Ad cons can look beyond that to see whether the student is a good fit.
It’s not the level of detail but the issue of hitting the mark. And when we talk about the elites, the kid has to show the fit. To show it, he needs to know what it is. Adcoms don’t guess. There’s no, “Well, he seems busy, maybe he misunderstood, he’s got a 3.9, let’s take him.” There are thousands of others lined up for a slot. Others, who likely did do a better job on the whole package.
There’s so much focus on CC on stats and checking the CDS that people forget how holistic works. Most don’t know what an excellent app is, because they think it’s about high school freaking stats. Or any old essays that seem to meet the prompt, just as in high school where your grade can depend on that.
Yes, a kid can do a great job and still get rejected, because other factors beyond his control also matter. But I’d like kids to be able to think. " “I was rejected from X school despite submitting an excellent application,” rather than, “I threw my hat in, it’s a crapshoot, anyway.”
If the question is evolving to “will your application be more successful if it is a school you are passionate about and have researched in detail” I am confident we will have nearly 100% consensus. 
I am in agreement as long as nobody thinks that passionate means saying “I have dreamed of going to Harvard since I was a toddler.” I think admissions people probably have good baloney detectors.
@Hunt - I’ve only been on College Confidential for a little over a year, but based on what I’ve seen here I can confidently state that there are quite a few students who have been dreaming of going to Harvard at least since elementary school! And I have no doubt that some of them have got there in the end (although maybe not after saying so on their applications)
@LoveTheBard That is excellent information on post 29. It really rounds out the data presented in this study:
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/04/20/mismatch
It would have been perfect if they have separate categories for athletes and legacies as well.
I do think there is a whole segment of the population that has an inflated sense of self that has taught their child that they are the best at everything and deserve whatever they seek and are in denial about what others have actually accomplished. I know another parent who encouraged her child to apply to schools way beyond his stats because “really who possibly could take 5 AP classes and still have all A’s and would that really be the same kid who got a perfect score on the ACT?”. Our school publishes the all A honor roll every quarter so you can readily determine how many kids really do get all A’s and what percentage of the class that is even though our school doesn’t rank. Neither of my kids was married to any one school. The older one went 50/50 on elite colleges so we were pretty pleased.
I think there are LARGE numbers of high achieving students where admissions into elite universities represents their 1st “failure” to get what THEY want.
The middle 50% ACT of Brown’s class is 30-34. My kid likes Brown. My kid has a 34 ACT. So my kid applies to Brown.
Having a 33-35 ACT gives you a 50% better chance of getting into Brown. It takes your chances of getting in from 9% all the way up to 12.7%. Which means you have to apply to a lot more Brown-type schools if you want to get into one or two.
In the olden days, my kid would have applied to four fancy schools and gotten into two. Today my kid will apply to 10 fancy schools and will get into two. Thanks to the internet, the Common App, USNWR etc. etc. etc. My kid is just as likely as in yester year to get into a school “like Brown”. But not as likely to get into Brown itself.
Since the grades and test scores are now table stakes, it becomes hard to know where those other factors will hit the target. That community service gig or humorous essay may really resonate at Notre Dame, but may be oh-so-boring at Duke.
But you can’t find out unless you play the game.
Harvard and Dartmouth have nothing specific on their applications. Once the CA is completed it really is a matter of “why not?” so anyone claiming to have been rejected to either because they didn’t work hard enough on the application is not being sincere @Karenk6 . “Why not?” got S1 into both although he had no real interest in either. I guess they didn’t find it “obvious” in his case, since they both sent likely letters. Penn only has a “why Penn?” supplement if I remember correctly. S threw that together in 30 minutes of combing the website and guess what? Likely letter.
MIT for instance isn’t on the CA and the application is time consuming and specific. Clearly they care about receiving applications only from students the have real interest. I have to assume the schools like Harvard and Dartmouth don’t care how interested you are and don’t factor into the evaluation process. I think Harvard assumes EVERYONE in interested after all!