<p>Students with really high high school GPAs in challenging courses and really high test scores have a better than 20% chance of getting in anywhere. Nothing like 100% at the most competitive schools, but probably at least 20%+. Students with slightly lower grades and slightly lower test scores have a much lower chance of admission, but still >0% (even after factoring out athletes, etc.).</p>
<p>Something like 20,000 unique students will get accepted at the Ivies, Stanford, MIT, and Cal Tech; adding additional colleges will add at least 1,000 per school for Duke, Chicago, etc., and probably about 500 for top LACs. So there is a fair amount of room at the inn. Not all of those slots go to top academic performers, of course, but at least half do (and probably more than that). </p>
<p>Looking at it from the other direction, there are probably something like 50,000 students with 2250 SATs (superscored) or the ACT equivalent, not all of whom have top grades, and not all of whom have any interest in applying to Harvard. Realistically (and really making up the numbers now), there are probably something like 20,000 kids chasing 15,000 “academic” slots at top universities and LACs, which really isn’t so daunting, and then a much greater number of kids seeking admission to a slightly lower number of slots on the basis of good-enough academics and some other qualities. That’s the odds that are really daunting unles a kid feels very confident, but it is those kids who provide a lot of leadership and make the elite college experience what it is.</p>