Stanford’s Dean of Admissions mentioned a few years ago that 80% of their application pool was fully qualified to attend and succeed at Stanford. So that’s one data point.
In short, you can’t compete on stats alone. There are far more “qualified” applicants at these tippy top schools than available spots. Also remember that a large chunk of seats will go to athletes, URMs, FGLIs, those bringing geographic, demographic, and other types of diversity, those playing certain musical instruments the school needs for its band and orchestra, legacy applicants, etc. Then a few more seats for children of mega donors and faculty. If you’re unhooked you’re competing for the relatively few remaining seats.
What schools do you have on your list other than these highly rejective ones?