As others said, there is never going to be a precise answer to this question because everything is contextual. Indeed, the Dean of Admissions at Dartmouth was describing how their version of an initial academic review was experimenting with AI/big data methods, and he was describing models using dozens of different input factors. Without direct access to that model AND all the other data they would be using, there is no way to predict with accuracy what effect different hypothetical variations in your particular transcript would have when it came to Dartmouth’s initial academic rating of your application. And that is just one university!
But as others are also pointing out–even taken together, the colleges you named are just a tiny fraction of all selective US colleges in terms of enrollment. Necessarily only a tiny fraction of kids can therefore be accepted to such colleges. Of course some simply choose other colleges–there are many reasons they might do that, because those particular colleges are not necessarily the most desirable type of college for a variety of kids. But even among the kids who would theoretically want to attend one if they could, only a tiny fraction would be able to get an offer.
So it really does not make any sense to see success or failure in college admissions as depending on being admitted to one of that handful of schools. Defined that way, almost every college bound kid will fail.
And yet, most of those kids will end up getting a lot out of college, and indeed many will go on to very successful business management and professional careers. Far more than can possibly attend those colleges. It is big economy, and management and professional services is a big sector, far too big for that tiny subset of colleges to supply more than a tiny subset of the future successes in that sector.
So as others are saying, just focus on doing your reasonable best going forward, which includes making sure to do everything you can to stay physically and mentally healthy. Then assuming going to straight to college is the right next step for you–it definitely is not always–you can carefully pick a great list of colleges, all of which would be comfortably affordable and give you far more opportunities than you could ever use as a single individual to get a great undergrad education and go on to whatever makes sense for you after that. And if you pick a wise list, you will have multiple offers, and you can pick your favorite.
And if that path goes through one of those colleges, cool. If not–and the math dictates it probably will not–then also cool. Seriously, nothing particularly important depends on that being your next step after HS. But a lot does depend on you maintaining healthy habits and ultimately picking a path that actually makes sense for you as an individual.