How many programs should you audition for? A "Freakonomics" approach

EmsDad · February 20, 2012, 12:34am

The University of Western Carolina is apparently sending out acceptances to their MT program and asking for commitments before the commonly accepted deadline of May 1, as early as February 25 (refer to this thread: <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1214374-western-carolina-university-musical-theatre-program.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1214374-western-carolina-university-musical-theatre-program.html</a> beginning with post #15). This, as one would expect, resulted in howls of derision from some CC posters. Of course, the MT department at Western Carolina is completely within their rights to do this, admission to a course of study is generally under the purview of the admitting department and is basically independent of the general admissions process to a college or university (unless the school unilaterally decides to link the two admissions processes). While most (maybe almost all) schools line up their commitment deadlines for their MT programs with the May 1 date commonly used general college admissions, this is only by gentlemens agreement and not any condition of guidelines followed under the auspices of various university associations.

Western Carolinas tactic is a classic example of a Game Theory situation smack dab in the middle of the artsy-fartsy world of Musical Theatre. Economist Alvin Roth, in studying several matching-markets such as College Football Bowls, Federal Court clerkships, etc., described a phenomenon he called unraveling, a form of the Prisoners Dilemma problem, where:

Western Carolina, although they undoubtedly have the best interests of their department at heart and may believe their intentions are otherwise, are doing a form of unraveling in the matching market of audition-based BFA programs. That is, they are accelerating the date at which a commitment must be made to their program in advance of most or perhaps all of their competitors. Whatever their motivations, this tactic avoids the matching market dilemma faced by other audition-based programs, which must either (a) use a waitlist from which to fill slots when acceptances are declined or (b) offer more acceptances than they actually desire, banking a yield of less than 100 percent which will result in their desired class size (or some combination of these tactics).

Western Carolinas approach is a classic example of the typical dominant strategy (aggression) that results from engaging in a game of Prisoners Dilemma without a commitment to mutual cooperation (allowing applicants to wait until May 1 to make a decision).

Before we line up to condemn Western Carolinas approach, it should be noted that the ubiquitous Early Decision process is one huge Game Theory problem:

<a href=“http://ericchaing.org/files/Avery_2001_WP.pdf[/url]”>http://ericchaing.org/files/Avery_2001_WP.pdf</a>

For more on the game of Prisoners Dilemma:

[Prisoners</a>? Dilemma: The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics | Library of Economics and Liberty](<a href=“http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PrisonersDilemma.html]Prisoners”>Prisoners’ Dilemma - Econlib)

For Alvin Roths papers on unraveling:

<a href=“http://kuznets.harvard.edu/~aroth/papers/evolut.pdf[/url]”>http://kuznets.harvard.edu/~aroth/papers/evolut.pdf</a>

<a href=“http://athens.src.uchicago.edu/jenni/atbarbar/assignement_references/roth_xing_AER94_imperfections%20and%20institutions%20related%20to%20the%20timing%20of%20market%20transactions.pdf[/url]”>http://athens.src.uchicago.edu/jenni/atbarbar/assignement_references/roth_xing_AER94_imperfections%20and%20institutions%20related%20to%20the%20timing%20of%20market%20transactions.pdf</a>

MichaelNKat · February 20, 2012, 2:38am

EmsDad, what the school is doing is in fact in violation of a “condition of guidelines followed under the auspices of various university associations”. It is in direct violation of the statement of ethical practices issued by the National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC) pertaining to the May 1 National Response Date, which state in relevant part:

"3. permit first-year candidates for fall admission to choose among offers of admission, financial aid, and scholarships until May 1 and will state this deadline explicitly in their offers of admission.

a. It is understood that May 1 will be viewed as the postmark and/or
submission date for electronic submissions. When May 1 falls on a
Sunday or holiday, May 2 becomes the recognized date.

b. Offers of admission must clearly state whether deposits voluntarily
submitted by students prior to May 1 are refundable or non-refundable.

c. Colleges will neither retract nor adversely alter their offers of admission and/
or financial aid prior to May 1, for candidates who choose not to reply until
that date nor will they state or imply that candidates might incur such a
penalty by waiting until May 1 to submit an enrollment deposit."

Moreover, it is inconsistent with the Code of Ethics of The National Association of Schools of Theatre (NAST):

"ARTICLE II
STUDENT RECRUITMENT

Section 1. Recruitment policies and procedures shall demonstrate concern for the needs of students, the institution, and the national effort in the education and training of theatre professionals.

Section 2. It is ethical for an institution to utilize procedures and techniques to develop a student body with the highest possible qualifications. However, such procedures and techniques must be applied in a national framework of common practice as outlined in this Code to protect the interests of both students and institutions.

Section 3. Institutions shall meet NAST standards regarding published materials and Web sites in fulfillment of their responsibility to provide accurate public information.

Section 4. Students are free to attend the institutions of their choice. However, at an appropriate point in time, a commitment in writing must be made between students and institutions. At such a point, administrators, faculty members, students, and all other parties involved must clearly state the nature of these commitments, the schedules for their implementation, and the conditions under which such commitments may be released by any or all of the parties."

NAST’s ethical standards require practices that conform to a “a national framework of common practice” (see section 2 above) and what this school is doing certainly doesn’t meet that “Ethical Standard”.

The reality, however, is that these guidelines are not legally enforceable by a student or the student’s family. At best, the associations could censure, impose a fine, suspend or expel a member that refuses to comply. Whether they have the will to do so is another question and an “offending” institution could always withdraw from membership, assuming it was a member to begin with.

The bottom line is that students and their families must be smart consumers who are advocates for themselves. Schools act in their own self interests, at times at the expense of students, and students and parents must be willing to do the same. I would closely scrutinize any school that has such a policy and carefully think through whether it is the type of place I would want my student to be.

In this regard, it is noteworthy that the school itself plays an interesting “game” when it comes to articulating its philosophy and practices regarding admissions. From the school’s admissions webpage:

" First, you may still need to determine if WCU is the best fit for you. As excited as we are that you have applied and have been admitted, we do not presume that an offer of admission means that you plan to enroll (or should enroll, for that matter). You may have been admitted to multiple colleges or universities. Have you visited to see which campus is the best fit for you? Your higher education is a tremendous investment. Be sure to take WCU for a test drive at an open house or through a campus tour. As much as we would like for you to enroll, we are most interested in enrolling students who have done their homework regarding college selection so that they find the perfect fit, perform well and graduate from WCU. Your first step is to make sure that WCU is the right place for you.

Once you know that you want to become a Catamount, you need to reserve a space in the entering class by submitting your tuition deposit. Acceptance to WCU does not ensure that a space is reserved for you—submission of the tuition deposit in advance of deadlines does so."

Sounds fair right? But the the school continues by stating:

"Speaking of advising and registration, the four important steps you must complete in order for advising and registration for your first term at WCU to occur are:

“1. Submitting Your Nonrefundable Tuition Deposit: This is our way of assuring that we will fill the entering class without overbooking the class. Think of your offer of acceptance as a declaration that you are eligible to fly. Think of your tuition deposit as guaranteeing you a boarding pass.”

So what they’ve done is with a “smile” welcomed admitted students, invited them to further investigate the school and other options to make sure the school is the right choice for a student but then set a response date that makes it impossible to do so and the icing on the cake is that the tuition deposit is non-refundable, again in contrast to most other schools.

Does the department deserve to be excoriated for adopting a February response date? I think so. You can analyze what they’ve done using game theory or any other modeling science, but in the “final analysis” the school is attempting to coerce students into making premature decisions by leveraging the insecurities and fears students have about the MT admissions process. Says a lot about the moral integrity of the department and its own insecurities about whether it can compete with other schools while playing by the same rules.

glassharmonica · February 20, 2012, 8:35am

MichaelNKat makes excellent points. Without these civilized points of agreement, the process would be chaos for everyone, including the schools themselves. One rouge school can survive playing outside of the self-imposed rules of the professional organization, but if more schools follow this example, the balance will tip.

Two years ago, when another daughter was going through the music conservatory admissions process, I noticed that, while not all conservatories she applied to belong to the NASM (National Assoc. of Schools of Music), they all respect the April 1 and May 1 deadlines. My daughter was admitted early to one non-member school who requested a February 25 answer because it is a small, tuition-free program and they wanted to be able to go quickly to the next person on their list. She requested an extension, and was immediately granted it. In the end, she felt a personal responsibility to make a quick decision and did decline the offer before April 1, but the school was willing to abide by the NASM standards if she needed the time.

It’s good that this conversation has come up about Western Carolina because next year’s applicants will be able to go into the process with their eyes open. Those who do not see WCU as a first choice should probably spare themselves the potential problem and not apply.

tracyvp · February 20, 2012, 10:20am

As the poster who originally brought the MT department at WCU’s early response “deadlline” to the attention of the good people of CC, I feel obligated to point out that the MT department is NOT requesting any sort of deposit to hold a student’s place in the program. It is just a letter of intent. I don’t know if this changes anyone’s thinking about the request, but for me that makes a huge difference. A student still has until May 1 to submit a deposit to the University. In essence the Letter of Intent is non-binding.

I believe Coastal Carolina used to use a process similar to this for those who auditioned at their November on-campus auditions, but has since abandoned it. I would be very interested to hear what kjgc has to say regarding why thy did it and why they stopped.

EmsDad · February 20, 2012, 10:21am

@tracyvp: thanks for the clarification, that is what I understood from the beginning and that is why I asserted that this “letter of intent” was not outside any college admission guidelines. This makes it very similar to the college athlete recruiting process, which allows for letters of intent prior to May 1.

@MichaelNKat: the Western Carolina offer of admission to the MT program does not require that you immediately enroll in the school, hence, my comments that it does not appear to be a literal violation of any NACAC or other college association agreements (although it certainly is a violation in spirit). However, the quotes that you noted from their website make it clear that Western Carolina seems to be attempting to “game the system” (which was my point all along).

@glassharmonia: yup, your point is what Roth noted when he said:

I certainly didn’t intend for my post to serve as any kind of endorsement for what WCU is doing. It was just an observation of game theory at work in the process, which is the topic of this thread. Free of any formal constraints, WCU is “unraveling” the current process, in a manner very similar to what used to happen in College Football bowl selections, Medical Internships, etc.

However, as I alluded to at the end of post #101, I find little difference in what WCU is doing vs. the entire ED process (I recommend reading the paper which is linked, in post #105, “What Worms for the Early Bird? Early Admissions at Selective Colleges” by Avery, Fairbanks and Zeckhauser), although certainly they are “gaming the system” by approaching the situation outside an “official” ED framework.

MomCares · February 20, 2012, 10:54am

I read the ED paper you linked, but find a significant difference in what WCU is doing.

An ED applicant has made a conscious decision that the ED school is their absolute top choice before applying, AND they have the option of applying RD to the same school. I doubt that many WCU MT applicants decided it was their top choice prior to auditioning, and it doesn’t sound like they were offered an RD alternative. ;-)

EmsDad · February 20, 2012, 11:41am

@MomCares: I meant the comparison in a broad sense, as noted in the preface to the paper:

ED has benefits, but it also has costs to students and parents.

MichaelNKat · February 20, 2012, 11:43am

Is this the same school that was discussed about a year ago, but not identified by name, where the “penalty” for not committing early was a withdrawal of offered financial aid? In that discussion, the department’s insistence on an early date was also at a variance with the May 1 date used by the rest of the university.

Putting myself in the shoes of a family dealing with all the vagaries and uncertainties of the MT admissions process, financial aid issues etc, I would be sorely tempted to “game” their system right back on them by returning the letter of intent and then making a final decision once all acceptances were in. If enough students did that, it would “unravel” WCU’s system and force the department to play by the same rules as everyone else, including the same ED/RD rules. Some might argue that this would not be ethical for the student to do but I would view it to be a fair equalizer where an institution takes advantage of its position of superior power to squeeze students into acting against their best interests in a situation where the student’s family will be ultimately going on the hook for tens of thousands of dollars. Let’s not think for a moment that the department doesn’t know exactly what it is doing and the impact it has on applicants. The department is not playing by the “rules” by design and intent to serve its interests at the expense of students.

Flossy · February 20, 2012, 11:49am

Since this school does state that you will have just 2 weeks to decide up front there are no real surprises here but I can’t imagine it being anyone’s first choice program and they have to know that. If you say yes and later change your mind what are the consequences?

MichaelNKat · February 20, 2012, 11:55am

ED students can always get out of an ED commitment based on financial need. And ED is no more a binding, legally enforceable commitment than any other admission. It’s only the social “contract” of treating ED as a desired and acceptable admissions program, based on mutuality of benefits for both student and school, that enables it to work. Unlike ED, where a student increases the likelihood of admission in return for an early commitment, at WCU, the students are treated no differently than RD but the department demands that they make a commitment like ED. It is entirely unilateral in benefit.

MichaelNKat · February 20, 2012, 11:58am

Flossy, since no deposit is required as has now been claified, there is no actual downside to changing your mind later.

kksmom5 · February 20, 2012, 12:05pm

MichaelNKat, my D received such a letter this week such as you mentioned above. The letter is titled, “Scholarship Acceptance/Non-Acceptance”, but then goes on to have two signature lines, one for “will attend” and “will not attend”. I was really surprised (and disappointed) to see this from this particular school. I feel like this is breaking the rules set out by NACAC, but can they get away with it with the title of the letter?

I’m not sure what we should do because we don’t know what the rest of the financial aid package will look like and my D’s attendance at this school would depend on that. PLUS, she’s still waiting to hear back from the majority of the schools where she auditioned that actually may be a better fit.

I have a hard time ethically having my D sign that she’s attending knowing that she may not . . . such an awkward position to put our kids in . . . kind of leaves a bad taste in my mouth to tell you the truth.

EmsDad · February 20, 2012, 12:08pm

Gee, I sure don’t want to seem like any kind of WCU defender but, in this case, they are making their offer well ahead of the April 1 date, so there is at least a little bit of quid pro quo. Of course, many other schools also make early offers without the stipulation of an early answer apparently demanded by WCU. But other schools also play subtle games of “acceptance pool” notifications, etc. where applicants are informed that they are “still in the process” but not yet accepted. While its easy to see that these “pool” notifications are no doubt appreciated by applicants (who hate to be left in the dark and appreciate the idea that they were at least good enough to merit futher consideration), they also serve to potentially forestall the students deciding on another program that has made a firm offer.

It strikes me that games run throughout this system.

@MichaelNKat: yup, games spawn strategies and your recommendation seems to me be the dominant strategy for applicants which will result from WCU’s approach.

MichaelNKat · February 20, 2012, 1:13pm

EmsDad, schools that are true ED offer greater odds of acceptance in return for the early commitment and if you are not accepted ED, you can be deferred to RD. Early Action gives you the benefit of an early notification on general admissions but usually you must wait to the normal time frame for the audition component. Rolling admissions gives the student the best of all worlds - you know quickly including audition and usually don’t have to make a commitment until May 1. WCU’s system attempts to give it the benefit of ED without conferring any admissions advantage to the student over other applicants. The school is gaming the system solely for its own benefit and then attempts to use coercive tactics to force a student to make a decision without the benefit of knowing other offers that may come later.

kksmom5, the school at issue with you has put you in an untenable situation by purposefully disregarding the established “rules of the game” and codes of conduct promulgated by the established organizations that address these issues. As a parent, I would have no reluctance to manipulate the school right back if I felt it important to my child’s best interests to do so. The school has made a business decision to structure its acceptance to serve its business interests and use coercive tactics to attempt to leverage families into making premature decisions. They know exactly what they are doing and the impact on students. They want to play that kind of game, fine, but then I would feel justified in playing them right back as long as it was not illegal or immoral. This is a business transaction and decision for the school. I firmly believe that parents must also approach aspects of the college process as a business decision that involves their kids lives and future. The school wants to play business hardball, fine, I would play hardball right back and do what was necessary to protect my daughter. In this case, I would return the acceptance and then wait to see what develops later both in terms of the balance of the financial aid package at the school and offers from other institutions. They are playing with your daughter’s life and 10’s of thousands of your dollars. Screw 'em! And if you would like to know how I really feel… :).

soozievt · February 20, 2012, 1:41pm

I agree 100% with each of Michael’s posts today. I also agree with MomCares (in that what WCU is doing and I’ve seen Point Park and perhaps another school do in the past is not like ED at all).

EmsDad · February 20, 2012, 2:54pm

My views of the ED process are colored by articles like this one:

It can be found here: [The</a> Atlantic | September 2001 | The Early-Decision Racket | Fallows](<a href=“http://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/2001/09/fallows.htm]The”>The Early-Decision Racket - The Atlantic)

soozievt · February 20, 2012, 4:02pm

But the pros and cons of Early Decision have been debated all over College Confidential (which is way more than this MT Forum). The discussion on this thread really isn’t about ED, which as MomCares points out, is different than the issues being presented here by a couple of schools such as WCU. When a student enters into a ED agreement, they know the policy ahead of time and enter into an agreement to enroll if admitted ED and that is not what is going on here with the other schools mentioned. Yes, ED has its own set of issues, but all of it is upfront when someone opts to enter that agreement.

EmsDad · February 20, 2012, 4:26pm

There are differences between ED and WCU’s tactics, but I think on a general basis the games are the same - they are both examples of unraveling in a matching market and they are both responses to a Prisoner’s Dilemma.

I hadn’t really thought about it before, but, as clearly indicated in the the posts above (esp. #114), WCU’s response to their Prisoner’s Dilemma results in putting a form of the Prisoner’s Dilemma onto the applicants. Interesting stuff.

soozievt · February 20, 2012, 4:36pm

No matter what one thinks of Early Decision (and it has its pros and cons), it is an accepted rule of college admissions practice and abides by policies and practices that colleges who are members of NACAC have agreed to.

The practices such as the example with WCU are not abiding by agreed upon practices set forth by NACAC.

kjgc · February 20, 2012, 6:11pm

A little bird told me that my handle was invoked and that a response was requested. I tried to plow through the entire thread but time won’t permit. I’ll comment on my program.

We continue to offer places to students following auditions in November. At that time we render one of three decisions. First, that we would like to invite the student into the program, Second that we believe that another program is best for the student, and finally the dreaded, we would love to keep your name “in the pool.” (Inelegant and not the way it is worded, but it gets the point across here.)

In fact, we now do that after each of our major auditions both on and off campus.

There was a time where we asked that students invited into the program to either say yes, or have them return “to the pool.” We did abandon that idea after one year. It had nothing whatsoever to do with guidelines regarding admission. Instead, we found students were not going to accept the invitation with so many other auditions scheduled. We gave no incentive to accept the invitation early, and therefore the students (families) saw no reason to answer early.

By the way, having a student accept a place in a program means nothing. There are no contracts signed, no blood given, no oath sworn. I wish it were the case but each year, many schools lose students to other programs, money issues, a change in future career, and many other changes. Other than the ED schools, nothing can be done if a student agrees to join one program and changes his/her mind at a later date.

I will make a final plea to all families and all students. No matter how you feel. If you have been offered a position in a program. Once you have made a decision, PLEASE LET THE OTHER PROGRAMS KNOW. Just send a nice email that says, “I appreciate your offer, but I believe that another program fits my needs better at this time.” That way the program knows where it stands, and can potentially open another place for some other student who really does what to attend that program. This isn’t adversarial, and it shouldn’t be.

I wish everyone great luck and joy in this journey. It isn’t easy for the programs - well at least it isn’t easy for us - and I know it isn’t easy on the families.

How many programs should you audition for? A "Freakonomics" approach

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