I think that it is hard to know.
We have a daughter currently enrolled in a PhD program. We watched her go through the application cycle a bit more than a year ago. A few things come to mind.
One is that at least some PhD programs are very highly competitive for admissions. Low single digit acceptance rates are not unusual at a top program, and this among a long list of very well qualified applicants.
I consistently heard that grades are not really all that important for PhD admissions. This might have been unfortunate in our daughter’s case, but nonetheless makes sense to me. They are looking for students who can do research, not students who can handle tough exams. It is not quite the same thing.
Having some experience studying overseas in a second language to me sounds like it would be quite valuable given your intended PhD focus.
Having research experience and a published paper seems like a significant plus.
To me this sounds quite important. I do not understand how anyone can study any part of the world without going there. Yes this will imply the possibility of cultural and/or language issues. However, overcoming this seems more important than having a long list of A’s and A+'s on your transcript.
The last thing that comes to mind is that our daughter did quite a bit of homework to understand the research that was being done at every university that she applied to. When she was asked to interview with professors, she had already read their papers, but re-read their papers before each interview and walked into the interview with at least one question to ask each professor about the professor’s research. She know how the research that she wanted to do fit in with the work being done at each university, and the work being done by specific professors. This did result in her having a somewhat shorter list of schools to apply to. This is also a lot of work. I think that it helped her chances quite a bit.
And I think that in most cases the only “safety” when it comes to PhD admissions is to find a job, work for a year, and maybe reapply (possibly to a different list of schools).