In the past there has been growth during much higher interest rates than now. As far as places such as China slowing down, how about Africa, India etc.? As far as negativity going forward, as a young man, there have been times that not only were stocks expected to underperform in the future, many didn’t even think there was a future.
@Doct, bond rates are lower today than they have been in the past. That’s a fact.
The rates of today are not a guess. If I buy bonds today that are comparable to bonds 10 years ago, the yields are lower. (I am not talking about junk bonds). I have to write longer posts than necessary because there might be an exception. Puerto Rico bond yields are probably higher today than 10 years ago. 
I read an economic report today, and the opinion was that the 10 year treasury note yield would fall to 1 percent and stay low thru the early 2020’s. That’s an opinion.
I was driving in a car with a friend of mine who was a trader and he is an investor. We looked at each other. We hope this opinion is wrong. My bonds start maturing in 2023. I may have reinvestment risk.
Interest rates are one determinant of asset prices. They aren’t the sole determinant of asset prices.
so?? The market has gone up all the time in the past with bond rates higher.
So?
Did the McKinsey Report say otherwise?
I don’t know what your point is. You expect the fed to hike to the sky?? Most expect a slow increase based on growth, inflation etc. Not being clairvoyant, I doubt we will see rates at what they were in the late 70’s - early 80’s.
Who said anything about rates going back to the 70’s or 80’s?
To answer your question. No.
If rates stay flat, fall, or rise a little, bond buyers are going to make less in bonds than they have over the last 30 years when rates were higher.
McKinsey didn’t write about stocks going down. They gave reasons why they think stocks aren’t going to perform as well over the next 20 years as they have over the last 30 years.
I think their reasons are correct.
Mathematically on bonds for sure. How is that an opinion?
I could write more but you misread the report.
@Doct, if you are talking about the precise future returns McKinsey came up with, yes. McKinsey does not know what the actual returns are going to be in the future.
“If rates stay flat, fall, or rise a little, bond buyers are going to make less in bonds than they have over the last 30 years when rates were higher.”
so if investors are going to make less in bonds, what do you think will happen with stocks?? I think most expect that rates staying low will have a positive impact on the stock market presumably because that is what has happened over the last few years (not that I necessarily buy that either)
My opinion is if rates stay down here for several years, that probably means growth is slow, which probably isn’t good for earnings. Combined with dividend yields near record lows, future stock market returns are going to be less than they have been for the last 30 years.
@Doct, what is your opinion?
“The report, written in collaboration with McKinsey’s Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice, estimates that for equities in both regions, average annual returns could be anywhere from approximately 150 to 400 basis points lower, or 1.5 to 4.0 percentage points. For fixed-income, the gap could be even larger, with average annual returns between 300 to 500 basis points lower (3 to 5 percentage points), and in some cases even lower than that.”
There is more than just US and Europe. When I wrote going down, I meant not going up as much. I disagree with their conclusions.
Ok. So you are investing overseas? You think multinationals with their shares trading in the United States will do better?
I own vwo
@Doct, thanks.
I am going to think about that etf for myself.
If a report comes out comparing the US and European stock markets with their past and future propects…the report is not addressing other areas.
So saying, other areas may have better growth and better stock markets weren’t addressed in the report.
Do you think the returns of stocks of American companies (including those companies with international exposure) are going to be higher over the next 20 years than the prior 30 years?
Didn’t somebody say, “Brazil is the country of the future and always will be.”?
I remember when everybody was so excited Petrobras became a public company tradeable in the United States.
I am just using Brazil as an example.
It’s true the numbers work better if you live 600 years. 
I don’t know anything about the next 20 - 30 years. I’ve also owned vgk in the past. My daughter was opening an ira with ubs because her fiance has an account with them. He was going to put her in some target fund that included bonds. I convinced her to just open an account with schwab and buy an etf - vt, hold off on bonds for a while and forget about it. She also has a 403b but the choices stink with really poor performance vs any benchmark. She is very conservative with her money.
I told my daughter similar things and no bonds too.
My Mom is still working. She is 85. We are headed into another financial crisis and this one will be worse than the last.
@TooOld4School, that we are heading for a financial crisis is pretty much true all the time; it’s just a question of when, and the fact is that it is close to impossible to predict. Whether or not it is worse than the last is, IMO, more of a coin toss.
@IxnayBob , so true! This time the world’s governments are buried in debt, the US is still printing money and has exceeded its constitutional limits so far as to be unrecognizable to the founders. This has all of the makings of a worldwide mess like the Asian crisis.
“My Mom is still working. She is 85. We are headed into another financial crisis and this one will be worse than the last”
Wow. Is she still working because she needs to, or wants to?