Hi! I applied to boarding schools last year and I totally get your panic. Like the others have said, it’s impossible to figure out your chances! I wasn’t an athletic recruit and didn’t have any extraordinary EC’s, so my experience will likely be different from yours. I needed a significant amount of aid and applied to ten schools. I only got into one. This might have been caused by many reasons, like the fact that I was a new sophomore, my extracurriculars, or just that I didn’t fit into the bigger picture. But I do know that it wasn’t because I’m not qualified! Even though I was initially disappointed, I’m now thriving at Westover, with a 4.0 GPA and as a student leader in whatever aspects I can. And talking to full pay friends at my school, I realized many of them got into schools I didn’t with lower stats.
So stats aren’t everything and I think it really is unpredictable. But wherever you do end up, even if it isn’t at a boarding school (and I think that has to be an option that you consider if you can’t widen your net and need financial aid. The first time I applied to boarding schools, granted, my application was much, much worse, I didn’t get in anywhere!), I think you’ll be okay (: Hope this helps!