How much will bad grades in a marking period (quarter) affect my chance in college?

An upward trend is much preferred to a flat or downward trend. 9th may be the “first” thing seen because it’s top left on the transcript, but you can be sure the grades to the right are more important to an admissions officer. I spoke to an admissions officer at Carnegie-Mellon and she said they don’t even look at 9th grade - discarded from the evaluation.

A 3.7 with a few Bs and a C in 9th grade and A’s in 11th will be better off than a 3.7 with a B or two each year, and certainly better off than all A’s in 9th/10th, then dropping off in 11th.

Having said that, any of those will fall behind a 3.95. Columbia isn’t much of a drop off from Harvard - 6.1% acceptance rate and a reported 11% acceptance with 1600/4.0.

But 9th grade is now in the past - nothing to be done about it. Get the best grades you can going forward.