How much would duke cost based on EFC

If your EFC after using the school specific calculator is 15k then the expected contribution will approx 15k. You can reduce this by student contributions from summer employment.

The aid package may include work study. There are many components potentially

But as mentioned you need to use each schools full NPC or net price calculator and be very exact. The numbers may be very different. It will give you a very good idea at each school.