To a really answer your question, your profile is probably competitive with what Duke lists as a typical admitted student profile. They also list a very low acceptance rate.
This puts them in the “match but still unlikely” category - students who are accepted will have a similar profile, but most students with your profile will still be rejected.
You will likely clear the first hurdle of being an applicant that the admissions committee believes could be successful at their school. But this pool will be much larger than the number of students that will be admitted. At this point the mystical process of shaping a class based on the school’s specific needs happens.