@AlwaysLearn when you say high stats what are you referring to? statistically speaking?
@flprepaidmom not sure if you posted but what are the stats of your daughter… SAT, GPA rank etc…what is your gut telling you as far as admittance?
@Gator88NE so does that mean about 17,500 kids were accepted out of the apprx 41k apps last year? all in? that about 43%
@jhmoney she has 3.9 UW and 4.6 recalculated. 1460 SAT and top 7% of her class… 7AP and 2 AICE by the end of junior year. Next year she will probably take 4 or 5 AP and one more AICE. Coming from a very competitive top feeder school to UF. My gut tells me she should get in, but after all of the stories I’ve heard, obviously nothing is a lock.
@flprepaidmom I am a statistician, so it is my job to rely on data and facts to make decisions. Many of the decisions i need to inform are high stakes, and I never have all the data I want. There is always a margin of error, or a true chance that B will occur instead of A. But I have to act based on the data I have. And I always have to ask myself ‘what are the consequences of A happening when I assumed B? Or vice versa.
The chances of your daughter being accepted into UF are very, very high. Especially since you are so in-tuned to a possible rejection that I am sure the app will be error-free. So I think that what is most important is that your decisions on what else to do assume she will be accepted, yet still prepare for her not getting accepted.
Let’s assume that you considered UF to be a crap shoot. What would her list look like, then, and what would you do surrounding those other apps?
And the let’s assume that I have magical powers and can tell upon that there is a 99.9% chance your daughter will be accepted. What would you do differently? Apply to fewer safeties? More reaches? Or nothing different at all?
Then…what are the ramifications of the differences of those two scenarios? One cost you more $? Or time? Or stress? Do any of those matter?
We were in a somewhat similar situation but chose to assume our high stats kid would be accepted to our state flagship. That shaped his list tremendously and led to him doing a VERY deep dive into 8 reaches (and one match). He knew he’d be applying EA to our flagship and would know early, so adding a couple of safeties after that would have been totally possible. But he didn’t waste precious time (he plays two sports so has zero extra time from Aug 1 to March 1 every year) looking at schools he didn’t need to prior to last Aug 1.
So…assuming state flagship was an option, what should his strategy be, then? To search for a school which is demonstrably better based on her albeit nerdy criteria. The ramifications of that strategy and effort was huge for our kid. Because he spent so much time really looking hard at his reaches, he concluded that there was zero reason to go anywhere but our state flagship. He would be applying to only one college, he announced in September. He did, on oct 28. Luck did come into play and he was admitted in the first round of acceptances. Had he not heard by Dec 15th, he would have applied to more colleges in the RD round, but that was not necessary.
So…that strategy saved us quite a bit of time (delaying looking at any safeties besides our flagship), $ (only one app) and angst (he had to wait 18 whole days for his admission). But the real prize was his deep investigation into a bunch of elite schools he chose to look at based on rankings and prestige. He looked at these schools with a pretty clinical eye, and was able to walk away from all of them convinced that either the flagship was a better choice (based on his criteria, which are different than what most 18 year olds care about, for sure) or an equal, but far more expensive, choice. Had we assumed he needed to have 3 safeties, 3 matches and 3 reaches plus the flagship, this would have gone down differently. He would not have had the pretty convincing set of evidence that these other 8 highly ranked schools are not a better choice for him (he wold have only had 3 such schools). He is not attending our state flagship as the ‘booby prize’ for a high stats kid who didn’t get into any reaches. He CHOSE it. To us, that is kind of priceless. It was his very close examination of several programs, all more highly ranked than our flagship, that convinced him (and then he convinced us). He drove this bus completely and will be starting college knowing that he had all the facts he needed to make his decision. Note we fought him, big time, on his decision to apply to only one school EA. But he had no evidence there was any reason to apply anywhere else and felt it unethical to apply to a school that he wouldn’t attend. The events rolled out as he predicted, but he had facts to make his guess. He didn’t rely on what he’s heard about a student two years ago who got into Brown but not tOSU. He sought and obtained data to inform his decisions, not what he’d heard through the grapevine.
You can’t tell the future, but you can make a reasonable assessment of what is most likely to happen, and develop your strategy around that.
So…he is enjoying his senior year and took all STEM classes but one, making him a very happy camper. He spent a total of two hours getting his common app ready. (He wrote his essay last summer). He has had a PT job for a while and he insisted on paying for his college apps, so he used the unspent app $ to get a new computer. He is having the hockey season of his life and for the first time we can remember, he went out on a Friday night, despite finals being next week. The past month would have been VERY different had he not assumed he would be accepted into flagship. He would likely not have looked at the 8 schools under a microscope and not be so completely convinced of what he wanted because of that deep dive. No other apps needed, and not a single regret.
@cypresspat thank you for such a long response. Her list has three schools on it. UF, FSU and UCF. At UCF she will be an auto admit through top 10 knights. That is unless somewhere else comes up that she would want to go to and would give her amazing merit. Close to full tuition. From why I have seen that scenario is highly doubtful. So plan B is taking her bruised ego, brushing it off and going to FSU and probably loving it!
@cypresspat. OK, you need to make a thread entitled “Statistian chances you on your college acceptances”.That would blow up and be one of the most interesting threads but then you would have to quit work since you would be so busy… Lol…
@flprepaidmom I’m going to go out on a limb and say she is a lock… Holistic or not, she is not getting denied! even if she had a 1300 with that recalculated GPA she is getting in!
@Gator88NE so you are saying only 500 kids got accepted into IA program… I have a question for everyone? I have heard and have been told that if you apply to IA, you are not considered for the regular admissions process regardless of your stats? is this everyones understanding? once you hit Innovation Academy for the application, you are not considered for the regular admission? i know alot of kids applying to IA who think this is their lock to get into UF? like the program is a secret.
@Gator88NE also how many applied to IA to yield 500… i know 8 kids from my daughters school who applied to the IA… thinking this was their way to sneak in…
A couple of items…
First, the total number of applicants (say 41K) includes IA and PaCE.
The number of acceptances is only for those accepted to the fall term (FTIC) students (or summer “B”). It doesn’t include Pace, IA, or any other alternatives, like the Gator Engineering at Santa Fe program.
A set amount of students who are not accepted to the fall term, are offered PaCE or programs like GE@SF. Those that accept are not counted in the stats, since they are NOT fall admits.
IA is a bit special, in that students can apply directly to it. I still don’t think they are counted in the yield (accepted) since they start in the Spring, not the fall. But UF may interpret the “definition” of a admit differently than I do…
I’ve only saw the stats for IA acceptance rates, once, and it was close to 100%. They have plenty of spots, but not many applicants, so it’s not very competitive.
@Gator88NE i think that is changing… since the cat is out of the bag… for IA
Last year for IA from admissions annual report:
1,033 applicants
514 admits
255 enrolled
I think they admitted more in ‘18, but don’t quote me.
And at least at my children’s high school, the kids don’t of FSU or UCF as second choice either. There were kids at the top of the class picking FSU and especially UCF. UCF has more scholarship money (or at least spread out to the most students).
Each school has its strengths and the kids pick the one they want to go to. We had one student at the top of the class. She was going to FSU. Her parents went to FSU, her brother went to FSU, she was going to FSU. My nephew was also a top student and he’d go to any school BUT FSU. Hated it. Everyone at his hs hated it. Who knows why.
@jhmoney Test scores in the 75% range and high converted GPAs (several APs, top 10% of their class, etc.) One was offered PACE; I can’t remember if the other was. Both went on to attend higher ranked schools and ended up doing just fine.
@funfit Not sure what D’s plan B is at the moment, because it changes. She is in at USF and UCF, but also applied to FSU and some private schools outside of FL. We’re just seeing how this all shakes out. I also prepared her for the possibility of PACE, or being offered summer admission only, and told her to think about what she will want to do if those are her only options. At this point in time, she said she wouldn’t want to do PACE.
@AlwaysLearn Just a note on Summer. My daughter chose to start in Summer and it was a great move for her. Quite honestly, she was ready to get out of the house and start her college career, so summer B was fine. She had a month off after graduation and then she got to it. She had the same dorm for summer, spring and fall, so no hassles with Fall move-in.
Getting-in to UF is tough, so a summer admit shouldn’t be seen as a disappointment, particularly when compared to PACE or rejection.
Of course, if summer session impedes the dream trip to Europe or the big family reunion, that would certainly suck. But for the kids, it’s six weeks that pretty much zips by, and they get a headstart on learning the ropes before the Fall insanity starts.
Best of luck to her.
@GatorDad305 I think summer is awesome! I know kids that got in for fall and asked to be switched to summer. It’s a great way to ease into college life. Only a few classes and the campus is less crowded. Should absolutely not be seen as a disappointment.
@AlwaysLearn so top 75% SAT scores, ill agree with but unfortunately for UF top 10% school ranking is not considered high achievers… I certainly consider top 10% amazing ( i was bottom 10% lol ) but UF its not… top 5% is considered high achievers… hard to be outside the top 5% and be anything but at the low end of 50% mid range of GPA and more towards 25% range GPA range. its possible at some top top tier high schools to be outside the top 5% and still have high 50% mid range GPA but on average not the case … if you said kids with top 75% SAT & GPA yes those are high achievers in UF’s eyes. and if they didn’t get in thats odd. Holistic or not
@GatorDad305 Thank you. No big trips planned for July or August, so I agree that summer might be a good way to go if it pans out that way. I know that she is a little burnt out on school and ideally would like to have the summer off (current plan is to get a job and work a little bit to earn some spending money), but I agree with you that this might be a beneficial option to get ahead of the fall craziness. It’s also good to know that they may not need to move buildings again in the fall if they start out in Summer B.