Actually, it was more like 35%, but my daughter’s test scores were still in the bottom quartile & she still didn’t have any math beyond 2nd year algebra, and there were still a bunch of disappointed CC’ers with much higher test scores were turned down. The biggest change that I can see is that the department that represented the “need” my daughter could fill was downsized in the wake of the 2009 recession and doesn’t seem to have recovered… so in today’s admission climate, my daughter wouldn’t really have any value-added qualities that would be helpful there. (
And as admissions becomes more selective, the point just becomes stronger: applicants need to distinguish themselves even more. My D was never going to slide by into a school like Chicago based on her GPA and test scores, but in her day… many more of the high stat, AP-loaded students did. But those days are gone --now even the very high stat students need to come in with an application that paints a very clear picture of who they are, what they will bring from the school, and what sets them apart from the rest.
It’s not a random process. When admission rates drop below 10%, every single kid who get admitted has some quality (or multiple qualities) that has caught the eye of the ad coms and is the reason they chose that applicant over the thousands of others with similar stats who they rejected. Those extra qualities may or may not be related to academics. If you were to sit in a room with admissions staff and ask them, “why this student?” for every one they admitted, they’d be able to articulate a reason. n.