How tough is it exactly to get into a UC as a CS major?

I have 3.6(UC weighted GPA) with SAT score of 1470(1510 superscored). My sophomore year was disastrous and that is what is bringing my cumulative GPA down. But I picked myself up and have been performing quite well for the past two years(3.7GPA). At first I was optimistic that I can get into UCSB or UCD as a CS major, however, people are telling me to be more “realistic” and that my chances of getting in are low. Others tell me I have a good shot, but most of them still tell me that I should look at lower-tier colleges which I find truly disturbing. Exactly what stats do you need to have a good shot to at a UC as CS major?

(Btw ik there are many people with this kind of discussions and I am sorry to be one of them but I really want to know since I have been getting depressed lately.)