Hurricane thoughts

jmmom · August 28, 2005, 3:57pm

barrons and wish-it-was

I found the following directly on the National Weather Service site. It is dire-sounding, but nothing like what you posted above from drudge, etc. I am just worried about Internet postings which may make things seem even worse than they are. For those of us sitting here, it makes it very scary, and I don’t want to be any more scared than is really sensible.

HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING
HURRICANE EXPECTED…

…RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION AND LEAVE THE WARNING AREA
NOW!..

…HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER…

…DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO…

…AREAS AFFECTED…
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA…THE FOLLOWING PARISHES

ASSUMPTION…ST JAMES…ST JOHN THE BAPTIST…ST CHARLES…
ST BERNARD…TERREBONNE…ORLEANS…JEFFERSON…PLAQUEMINE…
LAFOURCHE…ST TAMMANY…TANGIPAHOA…LIVINGSTON.

IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI…THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
HANCOCK…HARRISON…JACKSON

…WATCHES AND WARNINGS…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS
AREA…AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

…STORM INFORMATION…
AT 100 PM CDT…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HURRICANE KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER…KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL AT A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINED
160 MPH WINDS. HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

…PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PROTECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. FOLLOW LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS
RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEAVE HURRICANE WARNING AREA NOW BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WORSEN. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS FOR THE LANDFALL OF A
CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY…WITH DAMAGING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH STORM SURGE.

MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD
FOLLOW EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

…STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS…
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILE
EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME…SIGNIFICANT AND
LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE
FLOODING SHOULD LEAVE NOW! HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEE
PROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

…WIND IMPACTS…
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION…THEN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE
COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE…
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATED
CATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILE
HOMES…AND WEAKEN CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED
BUILDINGS. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED ON UPPER
FLOORS OF TALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE.

…TORNADOES…
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

…RAINFALL…
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

…NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.

$$

So, if you can verify those even more scary things about industrial buildings “imploding” (my words, but the feeling I got from the above posts), I would appreciate it.

barrons · August 28, 2005, 5:27pm

Yes, I think somebody might have used creative writing in that other “release” Maybe D got scammed but that’s where it came from. I though it was a bit over the top.

allena · August 28, 2005, 5:51pm

My thoughts are with all of you who are down there. Just a few months ago I was serisouly considering going Tulane, and have of course had the thought that I’d be in the middle of all of that if I did. Everybody who is living in that area take care of yourselves, and be sure to check in here when you can and let us all know you’re alright.

calmom · August 28, 2005, 5:53pm

The link to use for REAL information is here:
<a href=“http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url]”>http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/</a>
National Hurricane Center

I’m pretty sure that the other bulletin was a hoax, unfortunately. To me the phrase “will make human suffering incredible by modern standards” - is a dead giveaway. Not the sort of wording that finds its way into official bulletins and predictions

To everyone: while it is very important and helpful to share bona fide information and first-hand accounts, it is counterproductive (and very scary) to inadvertantly pass on information that turns out to be fraudulent, so PLEASE check sources of items before posting.

audiophile · August 28, 2005, 5:58pm

calmom’s link is where everyone gets their information at the official update times. Anything else is just speculation.

Blizzard · August 28, 2005, 6:44pm

My3Sons - Wow, Katrina caused a lot of damage in Florida. Hope things go well for your son and all the others affected there in the coming days.

My son is well and in a hotel in Memphis. His group decided to continue on after hearing the reports. Thoughts and prayers for everyone in the storm’s path.

achat · August 28, 2005, 6:58pm

All you moms and dads of Tulane kids - praying for your kids’ well-being and safety. Concerneddad, kudos to your son for helping out on the emergency team. I remember other parents from last year, Tabbyzmom, etc…hope their kids are fine. I think ctymomteacher’s kid is also at Tulane…her only child too.

concerneddad · August 28, 2005, 7:25pm

Thank you achat, I am hoping that all make it out o.k. and that the damage is nowhere near as bad as predicted.

[Memo to self: Don’t let my daughters pick a school prone to natural disasters – goodbye midwest, southeast, California, Alaska. Maybe Texas or Washington?]

marite · August 28, 2005, 7:29pm

Concerneddad:

Here in the NE, we only have snow and more snow, and occasional Nor’easters.

alongfortheride · August 28, 2005, 7:33pm

Thank you achat and others for your well wishes for us Tulane parents and our kids. Fortunately for us, Katrina blew in before our Saturday a.m. departure for NO. We live about 8 hours away by car and had decided to wait for the official university decision Saturday morning at 10 before we loaded out and started the drive.

It’s all so much to digest right now. The place we love to visit and the city that has become my son’s home away from home faces a very frightening situation. What is even harder for my son, I think, is the fact that so many of the students are from the immediate area - as are the faculty and staff - and he has a personal interest in how this storm affects their lives.

The future is uncertain to be sure, but my thoughts now are with the people of metro NO.

jmmom · August 28, 2005, 7:33pm

concerneddad: having lived in NE, SF, DC and now “experiencing” Gulf Coast (never lived in mid-west, but I know all about ToTo), I am thinking that those whose post names include words like “anxious”, “worried” and “concerned” should go for Washington, DC. The only disasters we seem to have there are of the political variety. :D

And thank you, calmom, that is the site I used for my “authentic” post. I am not much of a worrier, but wishitwas’ post really got to me. I hesitate to think how it affected those with loved ones down here who are less sanguine than I.

It is soooo easy nowadays for someone to doctor what started out as a real notice that I just don’t think we can accept anything from the Internet without the link allowing us to evaluate authenticity.

alongfortheride · August 28, 2005, 7:34pm

Concerneddad, don’t forget our Texas tornadoes!

concerneddad · August 28, 2005, 7:55pm

Along~, I am more afraid of your Texas Bushes!!! LOL

overanxious_mother · August 28, 2005, 8:19pm

Scary indeed…my business partner is from New Orleans; her whole family is there…we’re white-knuckled here in DC…where we get “only” Category I hurricanes (Isabel last year)…but we’re also ground zero for terrorist threats…not to mention snipers, so take us off the “safety list”…maybe WV? (on the OH border, near beautiful Athens & Ohio U (love that thread…one of “my kids”–an Odyssey of the Mind team member for 5 years–is going there; picked the HTC over Wash U & U VA and (I think) Brown…sounds FABULOUS…)

Don’t mean to be facetious…but we’re SO worried about Diane’s (Partner’s) family (they’re on the road now, headed north…or at least they were as of 3, when last we heard from them)…and we here at my house are as worried for our CC friends’ kids at Tulane and other Gulf Coast schools…it’s really just a terrifying situation…please do post to tell us you’re ok as soon as the “systems & logistics” allow, ok?

1tcm · August 28, 2005, 9:03pm

Two things…first and foremost. From a parent of a UM student who went through Katrina the other night while she was only a CatI know that all of us are praying and concerned about any of you who have loved ones who will be affected!

And secondly…the warning that wish-posted this morning which some seem to saying was a hoax is a legitimate post. I found it earlier this morning…You can find it here <a href=“http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz069[/url]”>http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz069</a> on the noaa site about 1/2 way down the page…

UM campus before Katrina
<a href=“http://img.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/albums/v232/canemom/banyon1.jpg[/url]”>http://img.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/albums/v232/canemom/banyon1.jpg</a>

UM campus after Katrina
<a href=“http://img.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/albums/v232/canemom/banyon2.jpg[/url]”>http://img.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/albums/v232/canemom/banyon2.jpg</a>
<a href=“http://img.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/albums/v232/canemom/Therat.jpg[/url]”>http://img.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/albums/v232/canemom/Therat.jpg</a>

bookworm · August 28, 2005, 9:27pm

Katrina didn’t hit SE FL with the ferocity she’s displaying now. I feel for all those Tulane kids and everyone in the path.

MotherOfTwo · August 28, 2005, 9:52pm

Yes, 1tcm is right. It is unfortunately not a hoax. I was about to post the link when I saw that 1 tcm had posted it. Hopefully, the forecast will not come true, as it predicts a horrible scenario.

barrons · August 28, 2005, 10:01pm

I heard it read tonight on several networks.

wish_it_was_april · August 28, 2005, 10:14pm

I was out for a few hours, and apologize again if it was inappropriate to post as I did. Thanks very much, 1tcm, for providing the link for people.

I do not think it is a hoax. However, hoax or not, the situation is very, very, serious. When Betsy hit in the 60s, she was “only” a category 3. People died and thousands more were left homeless. I think it is a very bad idea to stay in NO and that schools, businesses, etc. may not be reopening all that soon. I do not want to frighten people, but when I saw a post about someone’s child trying to get a flight out, I thought that if that were my kid, I’d want him evacuating to someplace safe. Immediately. I wouldn’t want him in an airport, hoping to get out soon.

But with the city under a mandatory evacuation, I guess no one will be waiting around airports much longer.

Everyone there, and all those with loved ones there, are in my thoughts and prayers.

sybbie719 · August 28, 2005, 10:28pm

Concernedad,

I just that they could just begin a new tradition down there instead of having a hurricane to start off the school year. Our good wishes and prayers go out to our Tulane parents and kids.

Haven’t heard from Cangel and the Alabama crew. Hope that all is well with them also.

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