@Hoorent oh man, what calculator did that? I’m curious how those numbers and up
Sorry but there is no algorithm that could possibly take into account all the variables involved in college acceptances. Some of the biggest parts of the puzzle, recs and essays, are left out the equation entirely because they’re unknown. Demographics play a role in determining the quality of the ECs and test scores and the rigor of the transcripts. You can’t start with a bunch of unknowns or subjective inputs and come up with a precise answer. All you can do is look at numerical things such as gpa and test scores and try to correlate them to past admissions. A hugely imprecise exercise at best. Please do not place to much stock in any particular “algorithm”. I was accepted to all of the HYPSM schools I applied with an early action admittance to one and likely letters to the rest. I’m certain that no model would have predicted this. It’s often what you can’t see of an applicant that matters the most. Good luck!
@Multiverse7 thank you! I was confused…I didn’t see how he could calculate all of my subjective factors
We’re just providing a number, which sometimes is way more helpful than reams of description. Of course there is a margin of error. Emory is a great school and @sumuzu is a great candidate with a great story (which figures in to the algorithm by the way) But is it more responsible to say “sure apply to 20 schools spending over $1,000 on application fees because well, you never know.” A 39% chance to get into Emory is a lot better chance than most of the applicants. We think it is helpful for applicants to understand just how competitive the environment is.
@jaecha , your link leads to “page not found”
@Hoorent http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1929903-chances-of-getting-into-my-dream-school-please-help.html#latest
i think it’ll work now
how accurate do you think this is?
thank you all for your input so far…do my ECs seem up to par with other people? I know I don’t have any sports or competitions, so I’ve always felt like my ECs are run-of-the-mill…
@Hoorent I don’t see how you can just provide “a number”. It’s like in football when the officials bring out the 10 yd chains and somewhat arbitrarily place one end on the ground and then take a precise 10yd measurement on the other side. It’s quite laughable when that happens.
What are the inputs to your algorithm? How can you possibly backtest the accuracy of your model? If you use data from past CC posts, you have no way of ensuring that the data is clean because kids often inflate their accomplishments or change stats and ECs to hide their identities. Throwing out a number like 39% is a little irresponsible since even admissions officers could not chance the people on CC if they read their Chance Me posts. If someone received a 39% score and was accepted to the school was your algorithm accurate or inaccurate? There’s no way to know. I think you should provide a lot more detail about what the inputs of you algorithm are and what your backtest results are that make you feel confident to throw these numbers out at us.
My fear is that someone will actually base their application decisions on what appears to be random numbers thrown out by an anonymous poster on the Internet claiming to have an algorithm. It’s human nature that we all want to believe that there is a black box model out there that will tell us our future but with so many subjective factors involved in college acceptances that are holistic and not just numbers driven, it’s impossible, imo, to come with a model to describe the process.
Again, please describe the algorithm in detail or refrain from giving what appear to be randomly generated “precise” predictions.
@Multiverse7 We are not saying we’re absolutely right. We are letting people know based on a ton of data provided what we think the odds of acceptance are. That’s it. We’re not saying whether it is good or bad. Come up with a better computation. Why is providing a likelihood of admittance any worse than the vague terms like “far reach” etc? Do you think the the present system that wastes money, travel and energy, with colleges encouraging all kids to apply so their acceptance percentage goes down to improve their rating, is the best, most efficient way in determining where to apply to school? Is that “responsible”?
If you think so, then you are entitled to your opinion, as are we.
We are unhappy with the status quo and have spent time and money to provide an alternative and we are certainly under no obligation to share our methodology with you.
i never said any of the things you digress about so please don’t put words in my mouth. I think Chance threads are futile at best but they if they somehow help to relieve some of the poster’s anxiety about admissions, I’m not going to argue with them.
So, you are not going to say anything about what your supposed algorithm uses for inputs or how it churns out a precise number like 39%? Where does this “ton of data” come from?
I emailed a family friend who does statistical arbitrage for a major Wall St investment bank about someone claiming to come up with an “algorithm” that spits out admissions odds. This is the gist of his reply:
He said that there’s an old saying that if you torture the data long enough it will tell you whatever you want to hear. Except in this case, even if college admissions decisions werent subjective (they are) and you could build a statistical model (you can’t), you would never be able to get the data you need to do so. The ONLY entity that has the “ton of data” you need are colleges themselves and there is no way to get it from them. You would have to have extensive amounts of data from every college you are making prediction models for and run multiple regression models, Monte Carlo simulations or other such multifactor methods to find if there are any predictive signals in the data. He agreed with me that since there are so many subjective factors (recs, essays, hooks, demographics, etc), it is highly unlikely that even if you could get the raw data (which again you can’t), it is extremely unlikely you will be able to derive anything meaningful from it - much less a prediction algorithm.
Therefore, given all that, I say your “algorithm” is complete BS. I think throwing out random numbers to naive kids and claiming to have a unique algorithm when you couldn’t possibly have the data to even attempt to derive one is shameful and I hope no one uses these random numbers to make important life decisions about the colleges they choose to apply to.
bump
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@Multiverse7 . Wow that’s harsh! You must have a lot of time on your hands to crank out so much drivel. We’re just providing another opinion that happens to be in the form of a number. Happy Thanksgiving!
Yes Sumuzu I think you need to spend some significant time readjusting your list, it does seem overloaded with reaches, some of them look like very high reaches 
No worries, lots of reasons that applicants overestimate, from guidance counselors to parent/family pressure, etc. But…it will lessen the crush if your list is better balanced with your scores. Best of luck to you.
@sumuzu : have you investigated all the colleges mentioned upthread? What did the NPC’s say? Have you filled out “request info” forms to signal interest?
@hoorent Just trying to protect unsuspecting posters from your secret “proprietary algorithm”. It’s a shame you call what I wrote drivel rather than to respond in a serious scientific manner if you could refute anything I said. You have no algorithm. There is no way for you to obtain data for an algorithm and the problem itself does not lend itself to a numerical solution because of the subjective nature of some of the inputs.
I actually don’t have a lot of time but I’m willing to spend what little I have to expose a huckster when I see one. I hope you aren’t or won’t be trying to charge money for your predictions.
I don’t wish to keep going off topic on this thread so PM me if you have anything meaningful to say. In the meantime, I hope you refrain from telling people you have a secret proprietary model that gives these precise numbers like a 39% chance. It’s total nonsense. You are, of course, free to give your “opinion” in any manner you want, just be honest and call it an opinion and not something it isn’t.
^^ 16%, 31%, 23%, 3,% 53%. I used a random number generator. Apparently, you didn’t read my posts. I suggest if you aspire to these top schools you start using your analytical and judgement skills. If you believe someone has an algorithm to predict your chances, you should not accept their claims on blind faith but ask what the methodology behind the algorithm is. So far, there has been zero answers to that question besides “trust me”. (This only works in presidential elections.)
If you were designing an algorithm you would start with assembling data, correct? There are no data!!! Colleges don’t release their admissions records. Period. End of story.
Just accept the fact that no one can predict your chances - not even an Admissions officer looking at what you’ve posted could tell you if you will get into their college. If you want to believe in an algorithm go ahead but I’m sure you know the story of the Wizard of Oz.
@Multiverse7 you say you got accepted to HYPSM but you’re a senior this year
Is there a way to apply to all these school early and know by November?
I’m not a senior and I didn’t get accepted to all five schools. I got accepted to all of the HYPSM schools to which I applied. I’m a freshman at one of them.
@MYOS1634 I’ve added Tulane and American University! Tulane gives me a lot of money+merit aid might be good and the same with American. American is a match for me. As for another safety, I’ve added U of Alabama. As I mentioned in my Vandy thread, thank you all for easing my worries. I understand how realistic my chances are now despite my desire to go to some of these schools, so I will still apply to them but have more hope for the likes of Kenyon, UTK Honors College, and American University.