I know I am beating a dead horse, but National Merit Cutoff information?

Test Preparation
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<p>PVmusicmom I understand that, but I was just looking for some speculation on the cutoff, I understand they aren’t officially released until September.</p>

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<p>Question: If one is in the 98th percentile for the nation and lives in a historically low cutoff state… what are the chances?</p>

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<p>Cantconcentrate, pretty good. Look at Mississippi and Louisiana’s cutoffs.</p>

<p>OP, top 5 schools don’t care if you are NMF. Many applicants to those schools don’t even bother completing the paperwork (part of that 1K/16K who don’t move from NMSF to NMF) because it doesn’t help them.</p>

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<p>Im talking about top 20, but not HYP. Im liking Rice, ND, Cornell. From what I understand, that does help admissions there.</p>

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<p>^ Those top 20 schools you mentioned, are not much different from HYP in terms of admission process.</p>

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<p>There is some money available at some to the top 20 schools for NMF, but in terms of admission I don’t think it helps much.</p>

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<p>ok, thanks!</p>

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<p>National Merit State Cut-off is NOT just the top 1%. It varies by state and takes in factors like HS graduation rates and making sure every state has a representative number. In TX, it has varied every year, but has traditionally been in the top .75% to the top .6%. In some states, the cut-off will include much more than that top 1% of scores. So knowing the top 1% does not give you the answer. And YES, score have gone down historically. Last year in TX, scores took a huge 4 pt leap to 219 and those who understand the formulas on this board (not me, but there are others) are predicting a 2-3 pt drop to 216 or 217. Prior to last year’s 219, Texas has traditionally been 215 or 216, so yes, it has gone up AND down over the years. Overall scores in TX definitely dropped a few points this year. So you have a decent chance, but you won’t know for sure until later this month at the earliest. Best of luck to you!!!</p>

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<p>I don’t know the precise formula, but the percentage of students taking the PSAT also factors in, indirectly. NMSC looks at the percentage of HS students in your state, and then determines the number of finalists as that same percentage of semifinalists (if 2% of HS seniors are in your state, then 2% of the finalists will be from your state). </p>

<p>If 100,000 students took the PSAT, and they were looking for 600 qualifiers, that would be 0.6% - a little more than half the students who scored in the 99th percentile. If a state with the same population had 30,000 students take the PSAT (because they focus on ACT over SAT), then those same 600 qualifiers would represent 2% of the test takers! It’s to your benefit to take the test in a state where most prefer the ACT over the SAT.</p>

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<p>Squidge, so hope you’re right. Looking for a 216 in TX!!</p>

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<p>Sorry this is a little late, but to clarify, CTScoutmom, are you saying that if your state has a higher number of highschool graduates then your state will be able to have more nmsq qualifiers??
the number of highschool graduates has been in increasing in texas but decreasing elsewhere, so does this mean that texas will be able to have more national merit scholars because texas hs grads represent an increasing percent of the national hs grads? </p>

<p><a href=“http://www.nacacnet.org/research/briefing/Projections/PublishingImages/Figure%208%20(2020).PNG[/url]”>http://www.nacacnet.org/research/briefing/Projections/PublishingImages/Figure%208%20(2020).PNG&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>in other words, will an increase in tx hs grads cause the qualifying score to drop?</p>

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<p>Yes. The idea is to identify not the top 1% (or whatever exact percentage they use) nationally, but the to 1% within each state.</p>

<p>So, yes if Texas has a larger share of HS graduates, it will have a larger share of National Merit Semifinalists. That does not necessarily mean the qualifying score will drop - you have to look at who those graduates are, and whether they took the PSAT/SAT or opted for ACT instead.</p>

<p>They use the number of graduates to allocate slots, then use the scores of those who chose to take the PSAT (or whose school chose for them) to fill those slots. If the brightest kids in Texas all take the PSAT, that could cause the qualifying score to rise).</p>

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<p>So does a hs grad only count in the nmsq calculations if they take sat? Or how does act/sat affect it?</p>

<p>We have established so far that
1.smarter, higher scoring kids will increase cutoff.
2. A drop on the national avg will likely lower the cutoff
3. Increase in hs grads in one state means that one state has more slots for nmsq’s the next year, so more kids can make it. therefore cutoff drops.
4. Increase in test takers raises the cutoff</p>

<p>Anything I am missing?</p>

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<p>By the time someone replies, the cutoffs will probably be announced hahahah, but Id still like to understand.</p>

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<p>High school graduate counts everyone who graduates. It has nothing to do with whether they took the ACT or SAT or didn’t take either.</p>