It is misleading to compare undergrad and law school admissions. For most law schools, knowing GPA and LSAT is HIGHLY predictive of the admissions outcome. The most notable exception is Yale- it is tiny, they can afford to pick and choose based elements that cannot be quantified. But otherwise, besides relatively minor tip factors, law school admissions is by the book (or stats as the case may be).
Lost- if you are trying to eliminate the “depression” caused by going in to competitive admissions knowing that your chances are relatively small, there are better ways to do that. Better as in more effective, yielding a better outcome in April, etc.
But sure- tell folks that their chances are 10 times what they think they are as long as they have a 4.0 and a 1600! 50% chance vs. 5% chance. That’ll cure depression!!!