If I apply to 10 undergraduate schools what're the odds I get into AT LEAST ONE?

Chance Me / Match Me
21

Since every college has different Adcoms reviewing your file, applying to more colleges might help a little bit since your “story”, essays, ECs, may resonant better with their specific college than other colleges.

I know someone who applied to 20+ colleges including BU at the last minute which was a high reach for her but still got in and is attending. Had she listened to folks that said don’t apply to so many colleges, she would have missed out on the opportunity. With that said, every college is different, don’t just blindly apply to the top 20 and expect great results, you will likely be disappointed.

Btw- UW is a great college especially for the price for in-state students.

22

@cypresspat

Nope.
https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/uADA/13/reminders/uncorrelated-vs-independent.pdf

23

Let’s not argue wishful tinking, whether a student who doesn’t meet one tippy top college’s expectations has some remaining chance at other tippy tops. First, you have to stand back and actually look at what the student does present.

It’s not just freshman year grades, first semester of soph year was a 3.0. We don’t know if that’s solid B grades or a combo of A and C. Tippy adcoms look at the transcript and non-A grades in the hoped-for major can put them off. These imply lesser learning. (Very few top colleges ignore freshman grades.) A “valid reason” doesn’t change this and plenty of applicants will have backstories with challenges, but have triumphed, nonetheless.

Same issue with 4 scores on AP. Sorry, but the competition is just too fierce, plenty of other kids won’t have hiccups.

The TT colleges like comm service in your own area and aren’t tipping in admits based on who raised what $$. For a foreign country. Nor social media work. OP shows no hs engagement, misunderstands that the essay is not a position paper or meant to be anything expository.

Clearly, she wants a top college. But from this and the Stanford thread, I don’t think she yet understand what they want and look for. That’s a big problem. That’s what needs to come first. Not arguments about probability.

ps. “HS transcript is the single most important part of your application.”

Not. It all matters. Stats just get you to the door. Any part of the rest can get you out of contention. In holistic and for a tippy top, any piece that’s off can affect chances. A poor essay choice, insufficient hs activities or unilateral, activities mainly focused outside your local area, misreading what that college target is about, attitude that comes through, anything.

24

Regarding the graduate department rankings mentioned (reply 2), I’d discourage their use for the evaluation of undergraduate economics programs. The quoted source, U.S. News, similarly suggests no carryover across levels.

25

OP, there’s no mathematical answer to the question you posed, because:

  1. None of us knows the odds of you being admitted to any one of the colleges you’ll apply to, let alone the joint probability of admissions to a group of colleges. A college’s acceptance rate is not the probability of acceptance for you as you aren’t an average applicant to that college. Your odds are better or worse than the average depending on who you are, how you did, and how you present yourself. No college gives us sufficient granularity to infer your probability of admission.

  2. College admissions aren’t random, even though the processes contain elements of arbitrariness and subjectivity. AOs are humans after all.

  3. Besides the objective elements of college admissions (commonly referred to as your stats), each college has its own criteria and needs. The commonalities (e.g. your stats + universal hooks such as URM status) increase the correlations between admissions to different colleges, while idiosyncrasies (e.g. essays, college-specific hooks such as legacy status) decrease the correlations. These correlations are unknown and can’t even be estimated at present.

  4. The quality of your application to each college is different, as each college tailors it own application somewhat, even on a common platform such as the Common App. Besides, the qualities of your applications may deteriorate as the number of your applications increases beyond some threshold. You only have finite amount of time to prepare for these applications.

26

Could be 100% or 0% depending on if you apply to colleges below your SAT/GPA scores or above. Have a variety of each : Safety (scores above avg and is affordable), Match and Reach schools.

27

I think there is an 80-95% chance that an applicant with credentials in range for such a school will be rejected if the student applies to only one such school.

If the student applies to several, then the chances of rejection from all go down somewhat – for example, applying to 3-5 such schools, perhaps odds of being rejected from all might be around 60-70%. I’m not doing the math here – just a seat of the pants guess – but I do think that for qualified candidates, applying to more than one school is sensible.

However, I think there is a point of diminishing returns and even a point where the odds of rejection by all may start to creep back up — because of the student undermining their own ability to research each college and tailor their applications. If you are applying to 10 such schools, you probably aren’t doing a very good job of targeting. That means a higher likelihood that you are sending apps to a school that is less likely to admit you.

But bottom line, if the admit rate at a given college is 20% … then odds of admissions aren’t going to get all that much higher for an unhooked candidate. Obviously, one thing you can do, since money isn’t a problem, is to choose your favorite and apply ED – that can easily double odds of admission, depending on school. Beyond that, the best thing you can do is to strengthen your applications by focusing a lot on the supplemental essays and other things that are college-specific. Those “why this college” essays are important.

28

Too late for me to edit my comment, but I just wanted to add:

You are off to a good start with a clearly defined set of interests & focus that will make your application memorable – and is outside and beyond the usual set of ECs/interests for many high school students. So part of targeting will be determining which schools with holistic admission practices will particularly value your interest and commitment to improving education in Pakistan.

Barnard was a good suggestion - with holistic admission practices and I think a school that appreciates international experience & outlook among its students - plus plenty of resources & offerings for a student with a focus on South Asia – but your overall GPA is low, so definitely something to have your g.c. address in your apps.

If you are happy with your safeties – then that’s fine. I’m assuming you would also be applying to UW and I think you could have a wonderful experience there. (I’m not saying its a safety - but definitely a match). But if you would be disappointed if your only options ended up being schools that you perceive as safeties, then you might want to narrow down the reaches to about 4 or 5, and add in some colleges with admission rates in the 20-50% range. On the east coast, that might include schools like GWU or NYU – again, I’m relying on your post about not needing financial aid, because these are pricey schools, but definitely have a lot to offer for someone with your interests.

29

Note that this premise, since it avoids some of the problem’s inherent complexity, would make it routine to complete the math (and answer the original question which involves collective probability) *once probability values/i have been assigned to each of the ten schools.

30

I LOVE NYU, I’m actually considering applying ED there because of their Gallatin school and international presence. Thank you so much for responding, an encouraging response means a lot in the midst of college admissions

31

“Note that this premise, since it avoids some of the problem’s inherent complexity, would make it routine to complete the math (and answer the original question) once probability values (however they may differ from general acceptance rates) have been assigned to each of the ten schools.”

Not unless you calculate the conditional (joint) probabilities of each possible combination. Otherwise you make the same mistake as those analysts that predicted one side had a 1% chance of winning the last election and the other was 99% likely to win, because they treated the probability of winning each state as independent. Monte Carlo simulation is usually the best way to approach such problems because the math is far from “routine”.

32

@Twoin18: I’m pretty sure you overlooked the word premise.

33

Re: correlated Vs independent. The confusion is in the meaning of the term “independent”. In statistics, “dependent” does not mean that one affects the other. So if there is a third variable which affects the two variables at which we are looking, that makes these two variables dependent, even though they do not directly affect one another. So the price of gas and the height of a tree in your background are not really affecting each other, but they are not statistically independent, since they are both affected by time.

So, since acceptance at any college is affected by stats and EC, that means that probability of acceptance at colleges which have similar requirements are not independent of one another. However, there is no causal relationship between acceptance at one college and acceptance at another college. So the chances of a kid being accepted to Yale are not dependent on whether they were accepted to Harvard, even though kids with high stats and very good ECs have a better chance at being accepted at either.

What we would need to do is to use the joint probabilities of stats and acceptance for each college. Imagine somebody buying multiple tickets for multiple lotteries. For every lottery, the probability of getting a prize increases with the number of tickets bought. If you compare two individuals, and one has bought 10 tickets from each lottery, while the other has bought 100 tickets from each lottery, the person who bought 100 tickets has a larger chance to win a prize from at least one lottery, and has a higher chance at each lottery. Now, the number of tickets bought at each lottery is correlated with the chance of winning a prize at that lottery, so, just like out students, we can say that the chances of the person winning is not independent of the number of tickets they bought.

But one can calculate the total chance of getting a prize by multiplying the probabilities of receiving a prize from each lottery, given the number of tickets that a person has bought for that particular lottery.

You can do the same for acceptances to colleges - you multiple the chances that an applicant has to be accepted at each college, given their stats and profile. That will provide the probability that they will be accepted to at least one college.

Unfortunately, there is no real way to calculate these chances ahead of the admissions season. First, they are dependent of the applicant pool, which differs year to year. Second, they depend on the AOs. Third, they depend on the order which applications are reviewed - the chances of an individual may change depending on whether they are #35 versus #1,394. And so forth, and so on.

Then there is the fact that there is no linear relationship between stats and acceptance. The probability of acceptance does not increase linearly with GPA, SAT, number of ECs, engagement in ECs, number of leadership positions in ECs, number of awards, the level of awards, etc. Add to that the fact that the distribution of GPAs, SAT/ACT scores, and EC activities are also not linear.

What this means is that there are a bunch of applicants whose probability of acceptance to, say, HYPSM, is way higher than 50%, which is why they get multiple acceptances. However, it must be noted that they do not usually get accepted to ALL of the low acceptance colleges, which is what one would expect from a probabilistic process.

However, since the effects of GPA, SAT/ACT, ECs, and other factors can change from year to year, it is impossible to actually predict anything except very very crudely. And all we can do is provide very rough estimates, like “reach”, “target”, and “safety.”

So, @alejaz, while it is, theoretically, possible to calculate that, if we know what the chances will be for kids with your stats at each of the colleges you will mention, we cannot actually know those probabilities. What we can tell you, based on what we have seen in the past. is that, with those stats, even after applying to 10 colleges, you will almost certainly be rejected by all of them. That does not mean that you should not apply to any, but that you should not put the effort and money it would take for you to submit 10 applications. Your chances of being accepted with an application you churn out in an hour is so low that it isn’t worth the hour you took to write it.

34

@merc81 I took the premise that @ucbalumnus gave as being that you could estimate “your personal chance of admission at each one”. Even if you can do that then it is not “routine to complete the math (and answer the original question) once probability values (however they may differ from general acceptance rates) have been assigned to each of the ten schools” because you cannot simply multiple these 10 probabilities together.

@MWolf is making the same mistake of assuming that you can simply “multiply the chances that an applicant has to be accepted at each college, given their stats and profile. That will provide the probability that they will be accepted to at least one college”. It won’t. Lottery tickets are not the right example to use because the probability of each individual ticket winning is independent (so the “joint probabilities” are not relevant). The best example is the 2016 election forecasts where you had estimates of the probability of the candidates winning each state, but you couldn’t just multiply them together.

As Nate Silver noted (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/):
“The error from state to state is correlated. If Trump significantly beats his polls in Ohio, he’ll probably do so in Pennsylvania also. Figuring out how to account for these correlations is tricky, but you shouldn’t put too much stock in models that don’t attempt to do so. They’ll underestimate the chances for the trailing candidate if they assume that states are independent from one another.”

That’s a good explanation of why this calculation (even if you could estimate the probability of getting into each college or winning each state) is “tricky” rather than “routine”.

35

Actually, whatever the weakest part of the application is will be the most important part of the application in getting the applicant rejected from the most selective colleges. So if the high school record is the weakest part of the application for this applicant, it will be the most important part. For some other applicant, his/her low test scores may be the most important part; for yet another applicant, his/her less-than-outstanding recommendations may be the most important part, etc…

36

Let’s keep it simple. Let’s say I’m interviewing for an accounting position at some top CPA firms with many applicants.

Are my odds of gettIng a job the exact same if I apply to only 1 firm or if I apply to 10 firms?

I think we would all say that by applying to 10 firms will increase my odds (even if only slightly) of getting a job offer by at least one firm.

37

Actually, many less selective colleges do give such granularity. Trivial examples would be automatic-admission stat thresholds. Obviously, this does not apply to super-selective colleges that most people on these forums focus on (and mistakenly believe that their admission practices are similar to all selective colleges).

38

Yes, your odds of getting at least one offer are higher unless the 10 firms look at your applications in exactly the same way (i.e. the correlation between them is perfect or 1). In reality, since the correlation isn’t perfect, your chances are better with multiple applications.

39

It’s not a lottery. Each college has expectations. You could apply to 40 and win none, if you dont match the basics they need.

Adcoms don’t toss a coin. And OP isn’t speaking of a balanced range of top 100. Rather, among the most competitive. And without the grade or AP consistency and EC patterns, breadth, etc.

40

Since other have approached your question from a statistics angle I’ll throw in a different response- where I see your strengths and weaknesses.

GPA- Your freshman year GPA will hurt you. There’s no way around it. The upward trend will definitely help, but tippy top schools have so many students who have faced adversity and achieved top grades nevertheless that a 2.1 semester will provide a reason to put your application in the “no” pile. That doesn’t mean you can’t get into a fantastic school. It may just not be Stanford or a similar level school. I am sympathetic to your freshman year situation. To put my comments in context, my child’s sophomore year was rocky, as her dad was diagnosed with cancer that year and I (her mom) was was dealing with the emotional impact of his diagnosis, dealing with my own possible cancer recurrence, and spending all my time tending to a dying parent. Yeah, it was rough, and she suffered for it. I would urge you not to use up your essays on your mother’s absence but make sure your GC will address it. You want to look like someone who doesn’t indulge in self-pity but who has a logical reason for a grade drop.

Other stats- Your junior year GPA and ACT are very strong, as is the number of AP’s and your scores, so schools that look beyond your overall GPA may be interested. Are you looking at any LAC’s? They may be among your best bets for highly rated schools.

EC’s - When you talk about your work with the Pakastani nonprofit you may want to emphasize the number of donors you were able to attract instead of the dollars raised. At your parents’ income level the entire $1,500 could easily be self-funded. In a similar vein, your volunteer work in Pakistan could be misconstrued as noblesse oblige. It can be hard for admissions folks to differentiate between hardcore volunteers and voluntourists so you’ll either want to provide evidence that your work was more than a quick dip into volunteer work or make it a minor part of you application.

The pizza chain social media work is intriguing but in and of itself not necessarily impressive. It does make me wonder what your connection to the business is. It might make an interesting essay topic if you have a story to tell.

I like your essay topics, but make sure your essay is about you. That is, use the topic of education of women in Pakistan to tell the story of how you became activated and how you plan to move forward.

Good luck!